Thursday, October 31, 2013

Why These 3 Companies Tanked: WTW, ARIA, AVP

Top 10 Biotech Companies For 2014

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Weight Watchers (WTW)

Weight Watchers issued an unexpectedly negative 2013 forecast on Thursday, dragging shares down 20% to $32.11.

"While we are working aggressively on both near-term commercial activities and longer-term strategic initiatives, 2014 will be a very challenging year," CEO Jim Chambers said in a statement.

The weight-management company said it expects memberships to continue to decline through the company's next financial year, contributing to a decline in revenue expected to reach as high as the low double-digits. The New York-based company reported third-quarter earnings of $1.07 a share on revenue 8.5% lower than a year earlier of $393.9 million. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance had expected 84 cents a share on $386.5 million. Management said cost-cutting measures allowed the business to surpass third-quarter expectations but that the trend would not extend to the fourth quarter. "To maintain financial flexibility and fund the company's transformation, the board has elected to suspend the dividend," said Chambers. TheStreet Ratings team rates WEIGHT WATCHERS INTL INC as a Hold with a ratings score of C+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation: "We rate WEIGHT WATCHERS INTL INC (WTW) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed -- some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. Among the primary strengths of the company is its expanding profit margins over time. At the same time, however, we also find weaknesses including a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself, deteriorating net income and weak operating cash flow." You can view the full analysis from the report here: WTW Ratings Report Ariad Pharmaceuticals Ariad Pharmaceuticals plummeted 44% to $2.20 after news it had suspended marketing and distribution of its sole approved product, Iclusig. The drug maker said it was a temporary suspension while it "continues to negotiate updates to the U.S. prescribing information". Ariad agreed to the measure after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) expressed concerns Iclusig, a leukemia drug, increased the chances patients would develop blood clots. Earlier in the month, late-stage trials of Iclusig revealed higher prevalence of side effects in patients, causing shares to plummet. Sales of the drug generated $13.9 million in revenue for the second quarter 2013. In after-markets trading, shares had managed to climb 1.4% to $2.23. In the year to date, share value has sunk 88.5%, the majority of losses suffered in October. TheStreet Ratings team rates Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) as a Sell with a ratings score of D. The team has this to say about their recommendation: "We rate Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) a SELL. This is driven by multiple weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its feeble growth in its earnings per share, deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself." Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows: Ariad Pharmaceuticals' earnings per share declined by 19.4% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share have declined over the last two years. We anticipate that this should continue in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, Ariad Pharmaceuticals reported poor results of -$1.34 cents a share vs. -93 cents a share in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 20.9% in earnings (-$1.62 vs. -$1.34). The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and the Biotechnology industry. The net income has significantly decreased by 34.4% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, falling from -$51.31 million to -$68.99 million. Return on equity has greatly decreased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of major weakness within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Biotechnology industry and the overall market, Ariad Pharmaceuticals' return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500. Net operating cash flow has decreased to -$45.69 million or 21.53% when compared to the same quarter last year. Despite a decrease in cash flow Ariad Pharmaceuticals is still fairing well by exceeding its industry average cash flow growth rate of -64.29%. Looking at the price performance of ARIA's shares over the past 12 months, there is not much good news to report: the stock is down 84.79%, and it has underformed the S&P 500 Index. In addition, the company's earnings per share are lower today than the year-earlier quarter. Naturally, the overall market trend is bound to be a significant factor. However, in one sense, the stock's sharp decline last year is a positive for future investors, making it cheaper (in proportion to its earnings over the past year) than most other stocks in its industry. But due to other concerns, we feel the stock is still not a good buy right now. You can view the full analysis from the report here: ARIA Ratings Report Avon Products Avon Products lost one-fifth of its share value in Thursday trading after missing Wall Street expectations on third-quarter earnings. After the bell, shares had given up 2.1% to $17.14, adding to 21.9% in losses it sustained throughout the day. For the period ended September, revenue of $2.26 billion was 7% lower than a year earlier, disappointing analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters who hoped for $2.44 billion. Earnings of 14 cents a share fell short of the expected 19 cents a share. "The third quarter was tough. Our quarterly performance was negatively impacted by macroeconomic headwinds and continued weakness in some parts of our business, particularly North America," said CEO Sheri McCory in a statement. In North America, revenue dropped 19% and the number of direct-selling representatives decreased by 16%. In emerging markets Mexico and Russia, sales fell 5% and 2% respectively. Separately, in an Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Avon said the SEC had proposed a potential settlement for an investigation into alleged bribery in overseas markets. Avon said the SEC's proposed terms of settlement were "of a magnitude significantly greater than our earlier offer" and such penalties were "unwarranted". Earlier in the year, the company had offered $12 million to settle the matter. Written by Keris Alison Lahiff.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Teva Bids Adieu to CEO, Gives Back October Gains

So Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), how did that work out for you? That, of course, being the decision to part ways with CEO Jeremy Levin.

Teva’s decision to look for a new CEO has had a drastic effect on the maker of generic drugs. At yesterday’s close, Teva had been up 9% in October. After today’s plunge, Teva’s stock is up just 0.3% this month.

Citigroup’s Liav Abraham and team still see value in Teva’s shares. They write:

We acknowledge that the Teva investment thesis will likely be a "show me" story over the near term, as the company and its Board demonstrates to investors that (i) the company's long-term strategy for value creation remains intact; and (ii) Dr. Levin's departure does not prompt the departure of other members of the company's senior leadership team, many of whom joined the company over the past couple of years. Our thesis surrounding the attractive risk-reward profile of the company remains intact; however investors are likely to be skeptical surrounding management's ability to unlock value over the near term.

S&P Capital IQ’s Herman Saftlas, however, sees the resignation as a sign of Teva’s dysfunction. He writes:

We are disappointed by the abrupt departure of Jeremy Levin as CEO of Teva after holding that position for less than 18 months, with Eyal Desheh named interim CEO. We believe the split reflects a fundamental difference between Mr. Levin and Teva’s Board on how to deal will several headwinds facing Teva, most notably impending generic erosion and increased competition in its key Copaxone multiple sclerosis franchise (which we believe accounts for close to one third of Teva’s gross profits).

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Teva has dropped 7.7% to $37.85 today at 3:23 p.m. but doesn’t seem to be spreading though the generic drug space. Taro Pharmaceuticals (TARO) ha gained 1.1% to $79, while Actavis (ACT) has gained 1.2% to $156.25 and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (RDY) has advanced 1% to $40.24. Mylan (MYL) has dropped 0.7% to $38.40.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

10 Best Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Monarch Casino & Resort (NASDAQ: MCRI  ) were cooling off today, falling as much as 20% after the company's earnings report failed to impress.

So what: The owner of the Atlantis Casino in Reno and the Monarch Casino Black Hawk in Colorado said earnings per share were in line with estimates at $0.32, and that revenue of $48.9 million was slightly below estimates of $49.3 million. Monarch's Colorado casino was affected by flooding in the state, forcing the property to be closed for four days and disrupting key feeder markets for the location. Because of the flooding, EBITDA growth at the Monarch casino was flat, while it improved 8.9% for Atlantis. Monarch also received a downgrade from Brean Capital, from buy to hold, based on valuation. �

Now what: Brean analyst Justin Sebastiano seemed to echo the market's sentiment, saying, "Our positive FY 14 outlook appears to already be in the stock." Monarch shares had gained 131% since April before today's drop thanks to huge earnings beats, so investors may have been expecting more of the same. With only modest growth expected next year, the stock seems fully priced at a P/E of 18.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)

Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L'Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Radovsky]

    Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) has reached an agreement in principle with the Bureau of Competition of the Federal Trade Commission that would allow the company to complete its proposed acquisition of Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA  ) , Pinnacle announced today.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    What: Shares of Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA  ) and Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) fell as much as 11% today after the government brought into question the merger of the two companies.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now: MGM Resorts International(MGM)

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company?s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the ?MGM Grand? brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ted Stamas]

    My impression is that unless they get acquired by one of the major casino operators like Las Vegas Sands (LVS) or MGM Resorts (MGM), this move into mobile gaming is a few years down the line before we see any significant results. Headlines can always goose a stock in the short term, but in the long run, it's the earnings that count, or revenue growth if you are a younger company. It must be noted that although they have a cash balance of $21.2 million and no debt, they are still losing money. This is a turnaround, speculative play, but one with significant potential.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    The next step
    The top end of the market has been doing well over the past two years, and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) have been the beneficiaries. Las Vegas Sands's Las Vegas�revenue was up 7% in the first quarter, while Wynn's�was up 6.6%. But MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) haven't seen the same success in the lower end of the market.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) doesn't have the flashy management that's made gaming companies famous, and CEO James Murren has taken a quieter role in the industry. But he has guided the company through the financial crisis and now has a huge growth opportunity on Cotai. But he isn't the only person investors need to watch.�

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Las Vegas Railway Express Inc. focuses to re-establish a conventional passenger train service between the Las Vegas and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. It plans to establish a ?Vegas-style? passenger train service. The company is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now: Wynn Resorts Limited(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of destination casino resorts. The company owns and operates Wynn Las Vegas casino resort in Las Vegas, which includes approximately 22 food and beverage outlets comprising 5 dining restaurants; 2 nightclubs; 1 spa and salon; 1 Ferrari and Maserati automobile dealership; wedding chapels; an 18-hole golf course; meeting space; and foot retail promenade featuring boutiques. Wynn Las Vegas casino resort also features approximately 147 table games, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, 1 poker room, 1,842 slot machines, and 1 race and sports book. It also owns and operates an Encore at Wynn Las Vegas resort, a destination casino resort located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas that features a 2,034 all-suite hotel, as well as a casino with 95 table games, 1 sky casino, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, and 778 slot machines. In addition, the company operates Wyn n Macau casino resort located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People?s Republic of China. Wynn Macau casino resort features approximately 595 hotel rooms and suites, 410 table games, 935 slot machines, 1 poker room, 1 sky casino, 6 restaurants, 1 spa and salon, lounges, meeting facilities, and retail space featuring boutiques. Further, it operates Encore at Wynn Macau resort located adjacent to Wynn Macau. Encore at Wynn Macau resort features approximately 410 luxury suites and 4 villas, as well as casino gaming space, including a sky casino consisting of 60 table games and 80 slot machines, 2 restaurants, 1 luxury spa, and retail space. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chris Hill and Bill Barker]

    Shares of the casino and resort company have had a very good run lately, rising 12% in the last three months alone. While most people automatically picture the iconic Las Vegas strip when they think of casinos, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) actually makes the majority of its profits from its operations in Macau. With China's economy slowing down, how much will Wynn's bottom line be hurt? Motley Fool Asset Management analyst Bill Barker shares why investors focused on the long term have nothing to fear.

  • [By Matt Thalman]

    While Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) are both major players in Macau, MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) is making a big push to grow its base in the Chinese gambling mecca, while it also has a massive footprint in Las Vegas, and the other two have a much lower room count. MGM owns a good portion of the Las Vegas Strip, and as we continue to see average daily hotel room rates rise for the city and increased gaming revenue for the strip, we will see MGM greatly benefit from a recovering American tourist industry and a stronger Las Vegas.

10 Best Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now: Penn National Gaming Inc.(PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. and its subsidiaries own and manage gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the United States. It operates approximately 27,000 gaming machines; 500 table games; and 2,000 hotel rooms in 23 facilities in 16 jurisdictions, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ontario. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

     

    Penn National Gaming (PENN) is a diversified, multi-jurisdictional owner and manager of gaming and pari-mutuel properties. This stock closed up 1.4% at $56.13 in Monday's trading session.

     

    Monday's Volume: 1.11 million

    Three-Month Average Volume: 824,334

    Volume % Change: 73%

     

     

    From a technical perspective, PENN jumped modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $54.71 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PENN within range of triggering a breakout trade. That trade will hit if PENN manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $57.44 to some past resistance at $58 with high volume.

     

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PENN as long as it's trending above Monday's low $55.65 or above more support at $54.71 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 824,334 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then PENN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $59.93. Any high-volume move above $59.93 will then give PENN a chance to hit $65.

     

10 Best Casino Stocks To Watch Right Now: Boyd Gaming Corporation(BYD)

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned and operated 1,042,787 square feet of casino space, containing approximately 25,973 slot machines, 655 table games, and 11,418 hotel rooms. It also owned and operated 16 gaming entertainment properties located in Nevada, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, and New Jersey. In addition, the company owns and operates a pari-mutuel jai-alai facility located in Dania Beach, Florida, as well as a travel agency in Hawaii. Further, it holds a 50% controlling interest in the limited liability company that operates Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Travis Hoium]

    Even if a federal bill does pass, there's no guarantee Zynga would win. Online poker is all about gaining a critical mass of users, and it's a uphill battle. MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) have already partnered with bwin.party for a U.S. online gaming venture. Bwin.party is one of the largest real-money online poker companies in the world, and with PokerStars likely shut out of the U.S. in the near future, this would be a formidable opponent. Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) has also had its eyes on online poker for some time, and with the World Series of Poker brand, it has a big draw for players. Caesars thinks so much of online poker that it's spinning off its "growth" assets, and online games are a key part of the new company.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One gaming player that's rapidly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Boyd Gaming (BYD), which owns and operates gaming entertainment facilities located in Nevada, Mississippi, Illinois, Louisiana and Indiana. This stock has been blazing a trail to the upside so far in 2013, with shares up sharply by 115%.

    If you look at the chart for Boyd Gaming, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong over the last month and change, with shares moving sharply higher from its low of $11.27 to its intraday high of $14.38 a share. During that move, shares of BYD have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of BYD into breakout territory above resistance at $13.79 a share, and it's quickly pushing the stock within range of another big breakout trade.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BYD if it manages to break out above its 52-week high at $14.50 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.34 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then BYD will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $18 to $20 a share.

    Traders can look to buy BYD off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some near-term support at $13 a share. One can also buy BYD off strength once it takes out $14.50 a share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    The real question is whether Zynga can hold off experienced casino operators if online gambling becomes a reality. Already, alliances are forming, with Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) and MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) having linked up with bwin.party -- the same company Zynga tapped for its real-money Zynga Poker -- to help Boyd take advantage of newly legal online gambling in New Jersey. Zynga has the obvious edge with its social savvy, but established casino companies will have huge incentives to defend their turf if Zynga starts to make a serious dent in the industry.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) reported earnings on April 24. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Boyd Gaming met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Monday, October 28, 2013

J.C. Penney Gains 7% as CEO Says Things are Really Getting Better, Really

Shares of J.C. Penney (JCP) have gained 6.8% to $7.257 today after CEO Myron Ullman spoke at a conference today.

AP

Reuters has the details:

J.C. Penney Co Inc told investors for the third time in less than five weeks that sales trends are improving and reaffirmed its forecast calling for a rise in same-store sales in the third quarter…

“I told lenders it would be one thing if we had two things wrong and they couldn’t be fixed. We have 30 things wrong and they can all be fixed,” Ullman said on Monday morning.

After hitting $6.24 last week, their lowest level in more than 30 years, shares of J.C. Penney have gained 16%.

Its strong day has also helped boost other retailers. Kohl's (KSS), for instance, has gained 1.4% to $55.51, while Macy's (M) has risen 1.1% to $45.40. Sears Holdings (SHLD), however, has dropped 1% to $55.34.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Accused SAC Capital Tipster Arrested in Tech-Deal Probe

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sac capital advisors steven cohen sandeep aggarwal arrested securities fraud chargeSeth Wenig/AP A securities analyst who passed nonpublic information about Yahoo and Microsoft to a portfolio manager at Steven A. Cohen's hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors was arrested in California, federal prosecutors said Tuesday. Sandeep Aggarwal, an analyst covering technology, is to be arraigned later Tuesday on charges of conspiracy to commit securities fraud and wire fraud at the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Federal Bureau of Investigation agents arrested Aggarwal, 40, in San Jose, Calif., on Monday. Aggarwal, who worked in 2009 as a research analyst covering technology at the firm Collins Stewart in San Francisco, is to be arraigned Tuesday at the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Lawyers for the 40-year-old defendant couldn't be reached for comment. Aggarwal, who also faces a civil suit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, is accused of tipping former SAC portfolio manager Richard Lee, as well as an employee at another hedge fund, about a planned partnership between the Internet company, Yahoo (YHOO), and the computer company, Microsoft (MSFT). The charges come less than a week after prosecutors in New York charged the $14 billion fund SAC Capital with securities fraud and wire fraud, claiming the hedge fund fostered a corrupt business culture in which portfolio managers were encouraged to use any means possible to find an "edge" in stock trading. The criminal charges, along with an administrative proceeding accusing Cohen, SAC's founder, of failing to properly supervise his employees, are the result of a multiyear investigation into insider trading at the firm. So far, 10 former SAC employees have been charged or implicated for insider trading. Lee, who worked as a portfolio manager at SAC between 2009 and 2013, pleaded guilty to charges related to insider trading and is cooperating with the government. The criminal complaint against Aggarwal said he spoke with a Microsoft employee on July 9, 2009, and learned of the potential partnership. A day later, according to the complaint, Aggarwal called Lee to discuss the partnership before it was announced. "Like many others before him, Sandeep Aggarwal allegedly broke the law and provided material nonpublic information on a Microsoft-Yahoo deal," said FBI Assistant Director-in-Charge George Venizelos. "When questioned by his employer about the source of the information, he lied."

Saturday, October 26, 2013

What's Next for Outerwall?

The Motley Fool is on the road in Seattle! Recently we visited Coinstar -- now officially renamed Outerwall  (NASDAQ: OUTR  ) -- to speak with CFO-turned-CEO Scott Di Valerio about the 22-year-old company's well-known coin-cashing machines, as well as its more recent acquisition of Redbox, and future initiatives to expand into other aspects of the automated retail market.

In this video segment, Scott reveals some digital offerings the company is developing to complement its physical services, including PayPal options on Coinstar machines, gift card exchanges, and event ticketing through Redbox. The full version of the interview can be watched here.

A full transcript follows the video.

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Austin Smith: What's next in the pipeline for Coinstar? You guys obviously are rolling out a lot of new devices, looking at new automated kiosks. What else is there for users, that they should be looking forward to over the next few years?

Scott Di Valerio: We're going to continue to look and bring great automated retail solutions. Certainly, with our coin line of business we are rolling out the PayPal, so that's a great opportunity for people to lever their PayPal accounts and do some things they want to do there.

We also have a business in the coin business called Gift Card Exchange, where you can exchange your gift cards that you've been getting for years, at stores that you might not go to, or stores that you have a little bit of money left on those cards, and get those turned in for cash.

We think that's going to be a very interesting business for us. We're starting to roll that business out. There's around 50 kiosks in the market today, and we'll expand that out over the next year to capture that, and also be looking to do that with both your physical gift card, but also your digital gift cards, to be able to be the place where you're turning in your gift cards and then we're remonetizing those out.

As I look at Redbox, for example, we're obviously beginning to roll out Redbox Instant in a broader fashion, along with Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) . We're testing tickets out, and we're putting in some very good CRM and loyalty programs that will roll out in the third and fourth quarters that will continue to extend out that Redbox brand and value; simplicity, convenience, and entertainment.

We are the No. 1 place for people to watch new release content. We want to be the No. 1 place that people come to for overall entertainment.

If I look at the business broader, we think there are some great opportunities to bring new products into the marketplace, but also to extend them out, both from a physical perspective as well as from an online perspective, and keep marrying those two things up as we go forward.

Friday, October 25, 2013

What Not to Buy at Dollar Stores

If you want to save money on everyday items, dollar stores can be a great place to shop. Consumers of all income levels are catching on to the savings opportunities at these retailers. According to a 2012 Consumer Reports survey, 68% of respondents who earned $75,000 or more said they had shopped at a dollar store.

SEE ALSO: Dollar Store Quiz: Deal or No Deal?

And why not. Even dollar-store items that cost more than a buck -- and many do -- can be better bargains than you'll find at other retailers (see What to Buy at Dollar Stores). And, contrary to popular belief, the quality of most items at national dollar-store chains is good, says Jeff Yeager, author of four popular books on frugal living, including his most-recent How to Retire the Cheapskate Way.

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However, Yeager and other money-saving experts say that there are some items that you should avoid buying at dollar stores because you either can find them for less elsewhere or the quality is inferior to competitors' merchandise. Here are 11 common purchases to skip at dollar stores:

Batteries. Cheap batteries may be prone to leakage, says money-saving expert Andrea Woroch. They also might not run your gadgets as long as pricier brands. Many dollar stores sell carbon-zinc batteries, which are less efficient and have a shorter shelf life than the alkaline variety.

Canned goods. Canned goods at the grocery store -- especially the store brand -- usually cost less than a buck. So $1 for a can of vegetables or fruit at the dollar store isn't such a good deal. Also watch out for cans that are near or past their expiration dates.

Chewing gum. You can get cheaper prices on gum when you buy it in bulk from warehouse clubs such as Costco or even at drugstores and big-box retailers, Woroch says.

Electronics. Consumer Reports found in 2012 that some dollar-store electronics and extension cords may not have UL labels vouching for their safety. Others may have fake labels, which are difficult to detect. It's better to spend a little extra for quality and safety.

Foil and plastic wrap. There's a reason these items are so inexpensive at dollar stores: The quality is inferior, says Yeager, who shops frequently at dollar stores but avoids buying foil and plastic wrap there.

Knives. Knives sold at dollar stores tend to be of poor quality, Woroch says. And this isn't an item you want falling apart while you're using it.

Paper goods. The quality of napkins, paper towels and toilet paper at dollar stores is, in general, inferior to what you'll find at grocery stores and big-box retailers. It's not a good value if you buy napkins or paper towels that are so flimsy that you have to use five to do the job of one, Yeager says.

Soda. Paying $1 for a 1-liter bottle of soda is not a good deal, says Yeager, because you can get a 2-liter bottle of soda for about $1 when it goes on sale at the grocery store.

Tools. Yeager says that hammers, screwdrivers and other tools he has bought at dollar stores have broken easily because the quality is inferior. As an avid do-it-yourselfer, he recommends buying the best tools you can afford because they'll last longer and make the job you're tackling easier.

Toys. Most toys from the dollar store are of low quality, says Andrew Schrage, co-owner of the personal finance blog Money Crashers. So they won't last long. Even though they're only a dollar, it's just not money well-spent, he says.

Vitamins. Consumer Reports research in 2012 found that off-brand multi-vitamins at dollar stores didn't always have the amount of nutrients claimed on the label. You may be better off getting vitamins from a well-known store brand, such as Rite Aid, Walgreens or CVS.



Thursday, October 24, 2013

Extended Unemployment Benefits Explain High Unemployment Rates

(click to enlarge)

I've featured this chart many times in recent years, always commenting to the effect that the decline in the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits was good news for the economy since it increased the incentives of the unemployed to find and accept jobs. Recall that Congress in 2008 took the unprecedented step of creating "emergency unemployment benefits, which had the effect of significantly boosting the number and duration of people receiving benefits. Until the Great Recession, we had never seen such a high level of unemployed receiving benefits for so long, so it is very tempting to link that with the fact that the unemployment rate has been exceptionally high in recent years.

As this paper points out, however, I may have missed the more important impact of extended unemployment benefits. Extended unemployment benefits keep worker's salary expectations high, and that has the effect of reducing employers' willingness to hire. It's not that unemployed individuals are insufficiently motivated to find work, it's that employers are insufficiently motivated to seek out more workers since salary expectations remain high.

... our estimates imply that most of the persistent increase in unemployment during the Great Recession can be accounted for by the unprecedented extensions of unemployment benefit eligibility.

... extending unemployment benefits exerts an upward pressure on the equilibrium wage. This lowers the profits employer receive from the filled jobs. As in equilibrium expected profits from filled jobs are driven down to the cost of vacancy posting, vacancy posting has to decline. Lower vacancies imply a lower job finding rate for workers, which leads to an increase in unemployment.


In any case, the ongoing and significant decline in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits (down 21% in the past 12 mon! ths) is a good reason to remain optimistic about the economy's ability to expand total employment.

Source: Extended Unemployment Benefits Explain High Unemployment Rates

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Apple Doesn't Like How iPhones Are Sold

One of Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) biggest competitive advantages over rivals has always been its large network of retail stores. Most other device makers sell primarily through third-party retailers and distributors. It turns out that Apple's not particularly happy with how iPhones are sold, since the vast majority is sold through third-party sellers like carriers.

The gateway drug
9to5Mac reported last week that Apple hosted a huge meeting with retail store managers from all over the world, and the main topic on the agenda was iPhone sales through Apple retail stores. Tim Cook talked at length at how the company needs to focus sales efforts on the iPhone. Mac and iPad sales through Apple stores are proceeding swimmingly, but only 20% of iPhones are sold through its own retail locations.

Even though the remaining 80% of iPhones are sold through other outlets, 50% of these devices are still serviced and supported at Apple's Genius Bars. Cook would prefer those figures to match up more closely, and Apple considers the iPhone like a "gateway product" that introduces consumers to other products like the Mac and iPad.

As part of this push, Apple is implementing several initiatives. The company just launched its annual back to school promotion, and for the first time is offering a $50 gift card with iPhone purchases. There have also been reports that Apple is about to launch an iPhone trade-in program within Apple retail stores, partnering with Brightstar to implement the program. Apple also has price matching policies, since third-party retailers sometimes offer discounts.

Home court advantage
Cook supposedly addressed the possibility of having carriers give sales reps incentives to push rival devices that carry lower subsidies, underscoring how important it is to have more control over the purchasing experience.

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Last year, BGR reported that AT&T (NYSE: T  ) was trying to steer customers away from the iPhone, a claim that Ma Bell staunchly denied with an official press statement. Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) CFO Fran Shammo provided a little more detail in how Big Red would lose out if it pressured customers toward devices they didn't actually want: Verizon Wireless would end up on the hook for two subsidies if customers return their devices under the 30-day guarantee.

AT&T's iPhone mix is also higher than Verizon's. An overwhelming 80% of AT&T's smartphone activations last quarter were Apple's device, while just 56% of Verizon's smartphone activations were iPhones. AT&T has a bigger incentive to move away from the iPhone.

Driving more iPhone sales through Apple retail stores reduces even the possibility of having third-party retailers prioritize competing devices.

Tim Cook reporting for duty
Apple still hasn't found a new retail chief after John Browett's brief stint, and the retail segment has been reporting directly to Cook ever since. Fortunately, the CEO has some ideas of how to boost iPhone sales through Apple retail stores.

Apple has a history of cranking out revolutionary products ... and then creatively destroying them with something better. Read about the future of Apple in the free report "Apple Will Destroy Its Greatest Product." Can Apple really disrupt its own iPhones and iPads? Find out by clicking here.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

When Does Tesla Plan to Unveil Its Newest Prototype?

At a recent presentation for Model S owners at his company's new service center in the German city of Munich, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) revealed some new information relevant to both the German market and the company's global future.

More AC for the autobahn
He was announcing a soon-to-be-released free retrofit update, giving Model S owners an improved driving experience at high speed. That's a much-needed upgrade for German owners, who can reach speeds of 200km/h on the Autobahn. He also confirmed that Tesla's Supercharger network in Germany will have Europe's highest number of stations per capita by the end of 2014. The reason is simple: The faster you drive, the more you will need to recharge.

Musk stated that Tesla is increasing its focus on the German market. Germans are very protective of their big automakers, such as BMW; if Tesla manages to beat the German automakers on their own turf, it would send a strong message to the global car industry.

A peek at Tesla's future
Musk then revealed new details about the mass-market GEN III car, possibly named the Model E, on which Tesla's current market valuation heavily relies. For the first time, he announced a timeframe for a prototype: 12 to 15 months. He also reiterated that it'll have a range of at least 320km (200 miles).

Musk reassured his audience about the current anxiety surrounding Tesla's battery cell supply. He stated that Panasonic is set to increase its battery manufacturing capacity to allow Tesla to build between 1,200 and 1,500 cars a week by the end of next year. Samsung and LG are also stepping up as secondary suppliers to make sure the supply of battery cells keeps up with the demand.

Musk also gave some insight into next year's plans to ramp up of production next year. He is spending 80% of his time on the expansion of the production capacity and the development of the Model X SUV, and he sees about 200 deliveries a week in Germany in comparison to 400 a week in the US.

Tesla Motors will post its financial results for the third quarter after market close today. While you're waiting for those earnings, check out full video of Musk's talk at the Munich event:

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Monday, October 21, 2013

Why AT&T Is One of Today's Top Dow Stocks

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

The markets are eerily quiet this Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) trades sideways with only a few of its 30 member stocks moving more than 1% in either direction.

One of those rare significant moves comes from telecom giant AT&T (NYSE: T  ) , notching the Dow's second-largest gain with a 1.2% jump. AT&T just monetized its network of cellphone towers in a multibillion-dollar deal with Crown Castle International (NYSE: CCI  ) . The agreement follows (way, way behind) a similar deal between AT&T and American Tower (NYSE: AMT  ) made some 13 years ago, leaving Ma Bell with few directly owned and operated cell towers under its vest.

Disguised cell tower

Cell towers often hide in plain sight. Image source: Bill Selak, Flickr.

Crown Castle agreed to buy 600 of AT&T's cell towers and lease the rights to operate another 9,100 towers for the next 28 years, on average. Crown Castle will pay AT&T $4.85 billion up front, then sublease some space on these towers right back to AT&T for at least 10 years.

Crown Castle's latest 10-K filing showed it has 29,800 towers in the U.S. market (including Puerto Rico), so the network just grew by one-third. American Tower, which is Crown Castle's nearest local competitor, manages more than 22,000 American towers.

AT&T doesn't expect the deal to impact its financial results at all. The old American Tower deal categorized the payments as deferred revenue with a very slow drawdown into recognized revenue, and the new contract should look similar.

JPMorgan Chase telecom analyst Phil Cusick recently estimated that AT&T has about 10,000 cell towers in its portfolio. If that estimate was correct, the Crown Castle deal will leave AT&T with a much leaner network structure, leasing nearly every tower.

AT&T investors took the announcement as good news, freeing up cash for network improvements or perhaps a strategic acquisition or two. Cell towers may be cash cows in the long run, as American Tower and Crown Castle have proven, but AT&T clearly prefers a quick payout right now. Add AT&T to your Foolish watchlist to see what AT&T plans to do with this nearly $5 billion cash infusion.

Crown Castle's shares actually retreated more than 1% on the news, regardless of the long-term cash-flow value the deal unlocks. The agreement will put some stress on Crown Castle's already debt-laden balance sheet. Investors must balance this fundamental risk against potential long-term cash gains, and many shareholders are landing on the "nervous" side of that analysis today.

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Sunday, October 20, 2013

A New Headwind For Pacific Ethanol

Executive summary

Pacific Ethanol returned to profitability in Q2 and experienced improved operating conditions in Q3. The company has also recently taken a number of steps to reduce its feedstock costs and increase its product margins. The market continues to favor Pacific Ethanol's industry peers over the company, however, and a recent leak of proposed regulation from the EPA introduces uncertainty with a bias to the downside to the company's share price.

Introduction

Three months ago I wrote that the stock performance YTD of independent ethanol producer Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) was an "aberration", especially in light of the performance of its industry peers' shares. The discrepancy between Pacific Ethanol's share price and those of its peers has only grown more pronounced since July (see figure). Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) and REX American Resources (REX) have continued to greatly outperform the S&P 500. Even Biofuel Energy, which fell behind on its interest and debt payments over the summer and is facing a shareholder-ruining liquidation, has seen its share price perform significantly better than Pacific Ethanol's in 2013. The oddest part about the stock's performance over the last three months, however, is that the period has been marked by multiple positive announcements from the company. It late July it reported its first positive EPS in almost two years for Q2 (0.07). Its Q2 EBITDA of $3.8 million was its highest since Q4 2011. Its current ratio is well above its previous lows, its ratio of total assets to total liabilities is increasing, and its total shareholders' equity is at a 3-year high. Despite these improvements, the company's price/book ratio is a mere 0.77.

PEIX Chart

PEIX data by YCharts

Pacific Ethanol at a glance

Pacific Ethanol operates four starch ethanol facilities with a combined capacity of 200 mi! llion gallons per year [MGY] in California, Oregon, and Idaho. Unlike most U.S. ethanol companies, which primarily source their feedstock from and operate in the Midwest U.S., Pacific Ethanol isn't afraid to source its feedstock from abroad and market its product to many of the Pacific Coast's urban centers. Furthermore, it also relies upon natural gas for process heat and power, as opposed to many Midwestern facilities that continue to rely upon coal for this purpose. The company fared well during the summer 2012 drought relative to its Midwestern peers due to its lack of exposure to the Midwest corn crop but was still a loss-maker in absolute terms, generating negative EPS and EBITDA numbers during all four quarters of 2012 (see table). A strengthening crush spread in H1 2013 brought the company back into positive territory, first with gross profit in Q1 and then with EPS and EBITDA in Q2. This crush spread strengthened further in Q3 (see figure), which should translate into a strong earnings report for the quarter.

PEIX Financials

 Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2012Q3 2012Q2 2012
Total Revenue ($MM)233.81225.46197.02215.86205.45
Gross Profit ($MM)6.970.85-4.71-2.44-4.90
Net Income ($MM)0.74-5.77-5.80-6.30-2.94
Diluted EPS0.07-0.04-0.04-0.05-0.03
EBITDA ($MM)3.8-0.15-3.0-5.3-8.0

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Source: PEIX

CORN data by YCharts

Pacific Ethanol has taken a number of steps this year toward diversifying its feedstock supply and increasing its volume of biofuel production qualifying as an advanced biofuel under the revised Renewable Fuel Standard [RFS2]. In March it reported that it was replacing some of its corn feedstock with grain sorghum that, when combined with the company's use of natural gas for process heat and power, allows the resulting ethanol to achieve the 50% greenhouse gas [GHG] reduction threshold relative to gasoline necessary to qualify as an advanced biofuel. Earlier this month it reported that it had purchased enough beet sugar to serve as feedstock for 12 million gallons of ethanol, further increasing the company's advanced biofuel production. These moves will provide Pacific Ethanol with two short-term financial advantages relative to its dedicated corn ethanol peers. First, both advanced biofuel feedstocks are attractively-priced relative to corn at the moment; grain sorghum prices have fallen faster than corn prices since April (see figure) while the beet sugar was purchased from the USDA at a discount to corn.

US Corn Farm Price Received Chart

US Corn Farm Price Received data by YCharts

Second, advanced biofuels qualify for D5 Renewable Identification Numbers [RIN] through the RFS2, which trade at a substantial premium to corn ethanol [D6] RINs. While the spread has narrowed from its highs in previous years, D5 RINs still trade at a 44% premium to D6 RINs. Pacific Ethanol's advanced biofuel production thus combines cheaper inputs with higher product margins (after accounting for RIN value passed through from blenders) relative to corn ethanol production. While the advanced biofuel production only contributes to part of the company's total production, every additional gallon represents an improvement to product mar! gins.

!

An EPA game-changer?

Unfortunately for Pacific Ethanol, the advanced biofuel margin could be on the verge of losing its financial premium relative to corn ethanol. Earlier this month a proposed rule from the EPA, which oversees the RFS2, on the 2014 volumetric mandates was leaked to the press. This proposed rule would respond to the looming 10 vol% ethanol [E10] blend wall by reducing the 2014 total renewable fuel volumetric mandate by almost 3 billion gallons. While roughly half of this decrease would come from a reduction to the corn ethanol mandate, which would be lower in 2014 than in 2013 (let alone relative to the originally-mandated 2014 volumes), the advanced biofuel mandate would be reduced from the originally-mandated 3.75 billion gallons to 2.17 billion gallons. Of this latter number, roughly 2 billion gallons would be attributable to biomass-based diesel, leaving at most a mere 170 million gallons available to ethanol producers qualifying for the advanced biofuel category. This 170 million gallons would be competed for by importers of Brazilian cane ethanol, domestic producers of sorghum and beet ethanol, and any biomass-based biodiesel production in excess of its own mandate. Any advanced biofuel production in excess of this volume would not qualify for D5 RINs. Furthermore, since the proposed rule would also reduce the corn ethanol mandate in 2014 relative to 2013, D6 RINs would also be expected to fall to near-zero, thus depriving advanced biofuel producers from taking advantage of the mandate's nested categories to salvage some value by earning D6 RINs in place of D5 RINs.

It is important to note that the leaked EPA document is a proposed rule that has yet to complete its review with the White House. Following the White House review it will undergo a period of public comment, the response to which will be considered when drafting the final rule. This public comment period is more than a formality, as the EPA has made major revisions to proposed rules on the RFS2 in the pas! t in resp! onse to public comments. At the same time, however, the EPA gave itself a deadline of November 30 to publish the final rule and the main lobbying organization for the refining industry has threatened to sue if this deadline is not met (notwithstanding the recent government shutdown). This development could limit the public comment period, depending on how seriously the EPA takes the threat of litigation. A substantial amount of uncertainty relating to the content of the eventual final rule still exists and investors should not be surprised if the proposed rule is modified at some point in the near future. The proposed rule's revisions to the RFS2 were unexpected, however, and did not move in the direction that investors in the biofuel industry prefer to see.

Conclusion

While I remain convinced that Pacific Ethanol's current share price remains an aberration relative to the rest of the industry (it certainly shouldn't be faring worse than Biofuel Energy on the year based on its recent earnings reports), I am no longer as bullish as I was in July on the company's future prospects in light of the EPA's leaked proposed rule. The continued fall by the company's share price despite its return to profitability in Q2 2013 and improved operating conditions in Q3 does raise the question of just how much of an improvement will be necessary for the company's shares to increase in value. It also raises the prospect that the market will punish Pacific Ethanol more than its peers should the EPA's proposed rule remain largely unchanged when its final rule is published. This additional element of uncertainty is biased to the downside, as the share prices of starch ethanol producers largely ignored the leak of the proposed rule (unlike refining shares, which surged in response). Investors in Pacific Ethanol should mark November 30 on their calendars and prepare for increased volatility in the days before the EPA's final rule deadline.

Source: A New Headwind For Pacific Ethanol

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Is BlackBerry Stock Oversold?

With shares of Blackberry (NASDAQ:BBRY) trading around $8, is BBRY an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework.

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

BlackBerry is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software, and services, it provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to information such as email, voice, instant messaging, SMS, Internet, intranet-based applications, and browsing. Its products and services feature the BlackBerry wireless solution, the Research In Motion Wireless Handheld product line, the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet, software development tools, and other software and hardware.

BlackBerry's latest desperate move involves taking out newspaper ads in an attempt to soothe investors and the few people who still use the company's devices that everything will be all right, Bloomberg reports. The full-page ads, which have been appearing in newspapers around the world, are in the form of an open letter. "These are no doubt challenging times for us and we don't underestimate the situation or ignore the challenges. We are making the difficult changes necessary to strengthen BlackBerry," BlackBerry says in the ads, which are meant to communicate with customers directly.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

Blackberry stock has been struggling over the past several years. The stock is currently trading near lows for the year as it continues to digest negative news. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Blackberry is trading below its key averages, which signals neutral to bearish price action in the near term.

BBRY

Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility and implied volatility skew levels of Blackberry options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Blackberry Options

68.80%

16%

14%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

November Options

Steep

Average

December Options

Steep

Average

As of Tuesday, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Blackberry’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Blackberry look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-308.89%

83.84%

178.41%

-96.08%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-45.02%

9.37%

-35.97%

-47.21%

Earnings Reaction

-0.99%

-27.76%

-0.89%

-22.73%

Blackberry has seen mixed earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been disappointed about Blackberry’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Blackberry stock done relative to its peers – Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Nokia (NYSE:NOK) — and sector?

Blackberry

Apple

Google

Nokia

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-32.5%

-6.28%

24.72%

74.94%

16.22%

Blackberry has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

BlackBerry provides innovative wireless communication products to consumers and companies worldwide. The company is reportedly making desperate moves in order to ease investor concerns. The stock has struggled to make positive progress in recent years and is now trading near lows for 2013. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been decreasing, which has left investors disappointed about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, BlackBerry has been a weak year-to-date performer. STAY AWAY from BlackBerry for now.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Best Financial Companies To Buy For 2014

We are within three hours of the close of trading and it appears that the E-mini S&P 500 might eek out a slight gain for the first week of the October trade. This coming on the heels of what has otherwise been a week filled with a barrage of negative news, political bickering and postponed economic reports. Currently, at 1:15pm EST the December E-mini S&P 500 contract sits at 1682.50, up .75% on the day. However, as we approach the close of trade on this relatively quiet Friday, our focus as a firm is beginning to shift to the week ahead. As it pertains to the broader market, and more specifically to the E-mini S&P 500 futures, we are using the following three areas of interest to guide our posturing ahead of next week's trade: 1. Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling Discussion - While purely speculation of course, there seems to be rumblings through the markets today that some sort of progress will be made over the weekend as it relates to the budget impasse, which could result in a relief rally on Monday. While I tend to believe this is unlikely, I do not think that it is out of the question. With that said, we have been positioning ourselves to take advantage of what could be some volatile times in the week ahead. 2. Official Start of 3rd Quarter Earnings - All eyes will likely be on the financials as Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are set to report on Friday, which could provide some clarity as to how other financials fared during a quarter where many fear that higher interest rates negatively impacted mortgage lending and trading revenue. Any sort of positive news from the banks could greatly benefit the S&P 500, as the financials have found themselves out of favor with investors since mid September. 3. Treasuries and Precious Metals - The 10-year Treasury remains on our radar as yields were up slightly today to 2.655%, with what appeared to be traders positioning themselves ahead of debt ceiling discussions that seem to be going nowhere. With the Fed taper discussion seemingly on the back burner until at least December, I'm interested to see the direction that yields take in the week ahead. With that said, both gold and silver were also leaned on heavily this week. A continuation of the shutdown for any length of time, and/or speculation of a delay to the fed taper plans could benefit the metals to the upside. Substantial inflows to the metals could indicate an ugly scenario on the horizon for equity indices. While nothing that I mention above is certain, and is simply of my own opinion, I believe that it is prudent as a trader to start looking out one, two or five days ahead, to see what could potentially perk above the horizon and impact your trading plan. A failure to do so exemplifies complacency, which in our world equates to risk exposure. Travis McGhee CEO, FuturesANIMAL

Best Financial Companies To Buy For 2014: Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK)

Heritage Commerce Corp operates as a bank holding company for Heritage Bank of Commerce that provides various commercial and personal banking services to residents and the business/professional community in California. It offers a range of deposit products for retail and business banking markets, including checking accounts, interest-bearing transaction accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and retirement accounts. The company also provides various loan products comprising commercial loans, such as operating secured and unsecured loans advanced for working capital, equipment purchases, and other business purposes; small business administration loans; commercial real estate loans; commercial construction loans for rental properties, commercial buildings, and homes; home equity line loans; and consumer loans consisting of loans for financing automobiles, various consumer goods, and other personal purposes. In addition, it offers other banking services, including cashier 's checks, bank-by-mail, ATM, night depositories, safe deposit boxes, direct deposit, automated payroll, electronic funds transfer, online banking, online bill pay, remote deposit capture, automated clearing house origination, electronic data interchange, and check imaging services. The company provides its banking products and services through operating 10 full service branch offices in the southern and eastern regions of the general San Francisco Bay Area of California in the counties of Santa Clara, Alameda, and Contra Costa. Heritage Commerce Corp was founded in 1993 and is based in San Jose, California.

Best Financial Companies To Buy For 2014: Capitaland Limited (C31.SI)

CapitaLand Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the real estate development, investment in real estate financial products and real estate assets, and management of serviced residences, as well as provision of advisory and management services. Its real estate and hospitality portfolio includes homes, offices, shopping malls, serviced residences, and mixed developments. The company is involved in the development and sale of residential properties; residential, commercial, and integrated property development; ownership and management of commercial and industrial properties; management of real estate funds and real estate investment trusts; and provision of financial advisory services. CapitaLand Limited operates primarily in Singapore, China, Australia, Europe, and other Asian countries. The company is headquartered in Singapore.

Top 5 Clean Energy Companies To Own For 2014: BlackRock California Municipal Income Trust (BFZ)

BlackRock California Municipal Income Trust is a closed ended fixed income mutual fund launched by BlackRock, Inc. It is managed by BlackRock Advisors, LLC. The fund invests in fixed income markets. It invests primarily in municipal bonds. It invests in companies operating across in transportation, hospital, housing, education, power, industrial and pollution control, and tobacco sectors. BlackRock California Municipal Income Trust was formed in 2001 and is domiciled in United States

Best Financial Companies To Buy For 2014: Hingham Institution for Savings(HIFS)

Hingham Institution for Savings provides various financial services to individuals and small businesses in Massachusetts. The company offers various deposit products, which include checking, savings, term certificates, NOW, money market, demand deposit, and individual retirement accounts. Its loan portfolio comprises residential and commercial real estate, construction, equity lines of credit, personal installment, and revolving credit loans, as well as home equity, overdraft protection, and personal and automobile loans. In addition, the company provides debit cards, direct deposits, safe deposit box, automated teller machines, and telephone and Internet-based banking services. As of December 31, 2010, it operated nine offices in Boston and southeastern Massachusetts. The company was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Hingham, Massachusetts.

Best Financial Companies To Buy For 2014: Credit Acceptance Corporation(CACC)

Credit Acceptance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides auto loans, and related products and services to consumers in the United States. Its loan programs include portfolio program, which advances money to dealer-partners in exchange for the right to service the underlying consumer loans; and purchase program that buys the consumer loans from the dealer-partners and keeps amounts collected from the consumers. The company markets its products through a network of approximately 55,000 independent and franchised automobile dealers. Credit Acceptance Corporation was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Southfield, Michigan.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Richard Moroney]

    Credit Acceptance (CACC) provides financing for auto purchases through a national network of nearly 4,500 car dealers. Its programs help dealers sell cars by attracting credit-challenged consumers unable to get conventional loans.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Google Chrome’s cache exposes personal data

SEATTLE – A major security flaw in Google's popular Chrome browser was exposed on Thursday by data management firm Identity Finder.

The flaw comes into play anytime you type personal information into webforms at trusted websites or directly into the Chrome browser address bar.

Researchers found that Chrome's caching mechanism routinely stores names, e-mail addresses, street addresses, phone numbers, bank account numbers, social security numbers and credit card numbers directly onto your hard drive in plain text -- without your knowledge or consent.

The function of a browser cache is to store files from websites, mainly to speed display of web pages on your next visit.

It's trivial for anyone with physical access to your computer to view and copy all of this sensitive personal data. What's worse, any bad guy who has lured you into installing a data-stealing Trojan on your computer can also easily harvest this very sensitive data.

Todd Feinman is CEO of Identity FInder(Photo: Identity Finder)

"Private information is being served on a silver platter for any criminal industrious enough to gain access," says Identity Finder CEO Todd Feinman. "This should frighten any consumer or business using Google Chrome."

Chrome is the world's third most popular web browser with a 16% market share; Firefox has a 19% share and Internet Explorer holds a 58% share, according to Net Applications.

This is the second finding of a profound Chrome shortcoming in three months. Last July, NSS Labs analyzed the privacy mechanisms built into Internet Explorer, Firefox, Chrome and Safari and found Chrome offering the poorest privacy protection.

CyberTruth has contacted Google spokeswoman Leslie Miller for comment; Miller says s! he's looking into it.

"By default Google Chrome stores (web) form data, including data entered on secure websites, to automatically suggest for later use," says Feinman. "This stored data is unencrypted text and accessible if your computer or hard drive is stolen or is infected with malware."

The risks of identity theft to consumers are obvious. Businesses that must comply with the payment card industry's PCI-DSS security rules could fail audits if employees are in the practice of entering credit card data in Chrome.

An extra step employees and consumers can take is to regularly clear Chrome's cache. Until Google addresses this gaping security hole, Chrome users would be wise to learn how to clear Chrome's cache, and do it often.

Security researchers have long warned Google of the dangers presented by poorly-conceived security and privacy controls. "This is no longer a theoretical risk that can be dismissed," Feinman says. "The fact that these security risks have been hard-coded into Chrome for so long only adds to the urgency for browser makers to secure all stored browser data."

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It's noteworthy that this flaw is baked into Chrome's basic architecture. "If Google properly prioritizes this issue with enough resources, it can mitigate this risk very quickly," Feinman says.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Hawaiian Airlines Could Surge on a Short Squeeze

Right now, lots of investors are betting against Hawaiian Holdings (NASDAQ: HA  ) , the parent of Hawaiian Airlines. That might seem like bad news for bulls (like me), but the story's not quite that simple.

Hawaiian Airlines' business fundamentals are actually improving, with unit revenue expected to start growing again in the just-ended third quarter. Furthermore, analysts expect Hawaiian to show solid earnings growth over the next few quarters. This sets the table for a possible "short squeeze" following Hawaiian's earnings report next week.

What's a short squeeze, anyway?
When investors bet against a stock -- by "shorting" it, which entails borrowing the stock and then selling it -- they must eventually repurchase the shares they have sold (to return them to the lender). If good news regarding the company causes the stock to rise quickly, short sellers may be forced to buy back the stock in order to cut their losses or avoid a margin call.

When investors short a stock en masse, good news for the company can have an exaggerated effect on the stock. If a large number of short sellers try to close their positions simultaneously, this additional demand for the stock can outrun the supply. The stock price therefore rises, to entice more shareholders to sell.

However, this increase in the stock price can force even more short-sellers to close out their positions, creating additional buying demand. This feedback loop can continue for quite a while, with a rising stock price creating more buying demand among desperate short sellers, causing the price to rise even more. This is a short squeeze, and it can lead to spectacular gains for investors in heavily shorted stocks.

Short squeeze in practice
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) is a great recent example of a short squeeze in practice. Last fall, more than 30% of the Netflix float (the shares available for trading) was sold short. As Netflix's stock price began to rise, short sellers began heading for the exits. This process was punctuated by two clear "short squeezes", following Netflix's January and April earnings reports.

NFLX Chart

Netflix One-Year Price Chart, data by YCharts

The high short interest in Netflix last fall proved to be a big boon for Netflix investors. The buying demand from short sellers looking to close their positions probably caused the stock to rise a lot faster than it would have otherwise.

The Hawaiian opportunity
Today, Hawaiian Holdings stock could be primed for a similar short squeeze. As I pointed out last month, short sellers began attacking Hawaiian in earnest after the company reported weak Q4 earnings in January. Despite several signs of improvement since then, short interest has continued to rise, reaching 25% of Hawaiian's float by the end of September.

HA Percent of Float Short Chart

HA Percent of Float Short data by YCharts

Despite this short-selling activity, Hawaiian Holdings stock is nearing the multiyear high it set in late July, and is up almost 50% from the lows it hit this spring. In other words, short sellers are already feeling significant pain.

HA Chart

Hawaiian Holdings Five-Year Price Chart, data by YCharts

If Hawaiian provides a solid Q4 forecast, which seems likely in light of the relatively favorable conditions it's facing, that could be enough to start a short squeeze. With the stock currently trading for less than seven times expected 2014 earnings, it has plenty of room to run, especially if earnings estimates start to rise again.

Foolish bottom line
Short sellers have been piling into Hawaiian Holdings this year, but they are not guaranteed to have their way. Bullish investors are equally excited about Hawaiian Holdings. In fact, Hirzel Capital Management -- Hawaiian's largest shareholder -- has been increasing its position aggressively, and now owns more than 10% of the company's stock.

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With the company's outlook improving, shorts may have missed their opportunity. If Hawaiian's forward guidance meets or beats expectations, the stock could be propelled much higher by a short squeeze.

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Sunday, October 13, 2013

SA Pro: Top Long And Short Ideas, Friday October 11

This is a copy of the SA Pro Top Long And Short Ideas daily report sent exclusively to Pro subscribers on Friday, October 11. It was made fully available on Seeking Alpha twenty-four hours later.

Dear SA Pro subscriber,

This is your daily report for Friday, October 11, with today's top long and short ideas available only to SA Pro subscribers.

Exclusive Alpha-Rich Ideas

Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot, by Akram's Razor. DATA's valuation compared to peers does not compute for buysider Akram's Razor. With a lock-up expiration looming and momentum dropping, he sees up to 50% downside. Exclusive until 9:30 AM today. Performant: Short-Term Noise Presents Long-Term Opportunity, by Dr. Hugh Akston. PFMT's secular growth opportunities and attractive valuation have been obscured by noise related to a myriad of issues. 60% upside. Exclusive until 9:45 AM today. Cott Corporation: Juicy Turnaround Story, by DAG1996. COT has faced headwinds in the soft drink market and with a key supplier, but there's still plenty of juice left. 30% upside. Exclusive until 10:00 AM today. Data Group Debentures Trade At Massive Discount, by Saj Karsan. Fund manager Saj Karsan finds DGI.TO's debentures to be the best play on the company. Potential 20% annual returns to maturity. Exclusive until 2:30 PM today.

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Stock Movers and Great Calls
Alpha-Rich long and short ideas regularly move stocks and identify stocks that are about to move. Some notable recent calls subscribers had early access to:

Monday, buysider Stilian Morrison said Fortress Paper's debentures trade at a high yield but are well-covered. The debentures are +6.8% since. Read article » On September 12th, Mike Arnold said Bona's model is an integrated growth business with a widening moat, offering 55% upside. The stock is +39.9% to date. Read article »

To C! ome Today
Don't forget to check your SA Pro dashboard during market hours today for the latest Alpha-Rich ideas. Have a great weekend.

SA Pro Editors
…............

The SA Pro team is Eli Hoffmann (Editor in Chief), Rachael Granby (Editorial Product Manager), Daniel Shvartsman, Samir Patel, Michael McDonald, and Jeffrey Fischer (Senior Pro Editors). You can reach us at pro-editors@seekingalpha.com.

Source: SA Pro: Top Long And Short Ideas, Friday October 11

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Orange Is The New Green

Orange may be the new black in the world of TV series, but Orange is the new green in the stock market.

Shares of French telecommunications provider Orange (ORAN) ("Orange" or "the company") have rallied to the tune of 51% since hitting fresh multi-year lows in July 2013. While it's hard to recommend shares that have run so far, so quick, it is my opinion that Orange is still presenting investors a compelling asymmetric risk/reward situation. One way to limit risk is to set limit orders to pick up shares on any pullback caused by the shenanigans going on inside the Beltway.

The four most dangerous words in investing are "this time it's different." But this time, I think it really is different for Orange and the broader equity markets in Europe. After a couple of years of deteriorating business performance at Orange in the wake of fierce competition, government austerity and a tightened regulatory environment, the feral stock market punished the price of Orange shares so much that Orange entered bargain territory.

(click to enlarge)

I normally don't look at charts much, but comparing Orange to its competitors in the French telecommunications market is quite fascinating. As one can see, incumbents Bouygues (BOUYF.PK) and Vivendi (VIVHY.PK) (owner of SFR) saw similar price declines. The market, on the other hand, rapidly bid up the price of new entrant Iliad SA (ILIAF.PK), as a result of forecasts for Iliad to capture significant mobile market share (which it did, around 10%). The wide divergence in price relative to changes in underlying value favor going long the incumbents, including Orange. Because this time it's different.

(click to enlarge)

This Time It's Different: M&A Ac! tivity Indicating Value

For those who keep tabs on the media and telecommunications industries, 2013 has proved to be a historic year in terms of the number and size of deals consummated, with the cornerstone deal being the Verizon (VZ) buyout of Vodafone's (VOD) 45% stake of Verizon Wireless for $130 billion in a cash and stock deal. After maximizing the value of its crown jewel asset, Vodafone may be on the lookout to buy up beaten down telecommunications businesses in Europe and/or invest in growth in emerging markets. Vodafone will retain about a $30 billion cash balance after returning significant value to shareholders realized from the Verizon Wireless deal.

I see considerable strategic value and potential synergies in a Vodafone/Orange tie up provided, of course, it be approved by regulatory agencies in the European Union. It would bring the Orange brand back to Vodafone who was required to sell it as part of its $180 billion takeover of German conglomerate Mannesmann in 2000. Both Vodafone and Orange frequently collaborate to develop telecom infrastructure in target markets, most recently in Spain and Romania. While Orange is levered most to France, it also has exposure to Spain, the UK, Africa, the Middle East and India.

Buying Orange at depressed prices would allow Vodafone access to these markets at bargain prices. Of course, taking full control of Orange is unlikely, given the French government owns a substantial stake in Orange. We all know about the many frustrating French government policies and regulations on business, in particular in the telco space. In my mind, this is the largest deterrent from a takeover of Orange.

In addition, with SFR, France's second largest telecom operator likely being demerged from its parent, Vivendi, by the end of 2014, there are a number of interesting outcomes in the French telecom market after the disruption caused by Iliad. Maybe the government would be more apt to allow another French telco to merge with Orange rather than a fore! ign enter! prise.

Other potential suitors for beaten up telecom assets in Europe include John Malone's Liberty Media Corporation (LMCA), who recently lost a bidding war for Kabel Deutschland to none other than Vodafone, who picked up the business for a shade over $10 billion.

To say that there are watchful and opportunistic eyes on Europe's telecom industry would be an understatement. In my view, this time it is different as telcos attempt to realize economies of scale in their operating models and move to a more converged product offering: wireless, wireline and pay-television services.

Valuation

Orange is currently valued at $36 billion and carries net debt of about $38 billion (using $1.30 : €1 exchange rate), for a total enterprise value of about $74 billion. With 231 million paid subscribers at the end of June 2013, prospective investors are paying about $320 EV/per subscriber and $155/per subscriber for the equity. That strikes me as a particular bargain, given the relatively stable cash flows provided in this defensive industry. Recent declines in average revenue per user ("ARPU") are a cause for concern among prospective investors, but I expect those to abate as market share among competitors becomes more defined after Iliad has reached 'critical size.'

(click to enlarge)

With mobile plans that are priced well below incumbents, Iliad has forced Orange to compete on price. It is evident in the numbers, as Orange reported ARPU down 12% year/year. However, as telcos move more towards converged service offerings and compete in 4G, LTE and FTTH, I expect that pricing will become less cutthroat as customers place a premium on the best service.

In terms of valuation, Orange is currently priced at 4.8x TTM EV/EBITDA, 1.4x TTM EV/Revenue and 1.1x book value. Relative to European competitors such as Bouygues and Iliad which trade a! t 5.6x an! d 10.3x EV/EBITDA, Orange trades at discounted multiples. However, these 'comparables' aren't perfect, as Bouygues has significant construction-related businesses and Iliad is being valued as a growth business.

Relative to US comparables such as AT&T (T) and Sprint (S) (now majority-owned by Japan's Softbank) which trade at EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.9x and 7.9x, respectively, the valuation gap is more pronounced. Because of all the moving parts in the recent Verizon Wireless deal, I've chosen to exclude it from the comparable set. US telcos also operate in a completely different regulatory environment from European telcos, which could explain the valuation gap.

Even with the significant pressure experienced by Orange, it is still on target to deliver over 7 billion euros in operating cash flow (which the company defines as adjusted EBITDA less capex) on the back of substantial cost reductions (422 million euros through the half-year).

Orange is practicing the "never let a good crisis go to waste" mantra to restructure its business. Most poignantly, the company is wringing out excess costs from its operating structure, and achieved a lion's share of its full-year 2013 cost reduction goals (600 million euros) in the first half (422 million euros), particularly with respect to direct costs. Reducing its variable cost structure is setting Orange up for significant operating leverage, which will allow Orange to harvest more cash from incremental revenue as growth stabilizes.

Meanwhile, the equity also stands to benefit from prudent financial management and refinancing its debt at historic low rates, thereby allowing interest savings to flow to shareholders. By the end of 2014, management is targeting a 2x net debt/EBITDA multiple, down considerable from levels seen just a couple of years ago. In my view, Orange has passed the high-risk zone in terms of financial leverage as it gets its operational house in order and reduces costs.

(click to enlarge)

Any way you slice it though, Orange looks cheap relative to its peers and on an absolute basis. When you combine the fact that sentiment on the European economy is turning bullish, and the worst was priced into Orange's share price relative to Iliad's known entrance into the market, Orange is set up to deliver solid risk-adjusted returns.

While the stock isn't as cheap as it was this past summer, I think shares still have another 25% to run based on EV/EBITDA multiple expansion to 6x, which were levels investors were willing to pay before many of the difficult regulatory and competition scenarios played out over the past couple of years.

When operating cash flows stabilize, it may be feasible that investors bid up prices allowing for additional multiple expansion on par with US comparables, around 8x EV/EBITDA. As such, Orange's stock quote has tarmac ahead of it both in terms of investors returning to Europe in search of fertile ground for bargain hunting and from improved operational performance.

Both should provide tailwinds to Orange at current price levels, coincident with lower risk than at the initial onset of recession in Europe, a materially lower debt profile and from Orange's competitive response to Iliad's entrance into the French mobile market.

Conclusion

There are a lot of forces at work in the telecommunications industry, many of which are conducive for recovery in underlying values and, ultimately, stock prices. Regulatory risk remains, but as the European market becomes less fragmented, a more unified European telecommunications market should allow incumbents to realize economies of scale and synergies from increased M&A activity.

Orange is cheap, and ready to show patient, long-term investors some serious green. Because this time it is different.

Europe is on its way back. A rising tide lifts all boats, and strategic players are a! wash with! cash and/or new found independence to maximize value. One way for that to happen is through buying up bargain assets such as Orange.

Even after a significant rise in share price, Orange is still in the bargain bin. Its shares have meaningful upside if it stays independent or if it gets a go private offer.

Either way, orange is the new green.

Source: Orange Is The New Green

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in ORAN over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

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Friday, October 11, 2013

China firm takes stake in Brooklyn real estate project

shop architects

An architect's drawing of the towers that are planned as part of the Atlantic Yards project in Brooklyn.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) A Chinese firm is taking a majority stake in a major Brooklyn real estate development, one of the largest moves into U.S. commercial real estate by investors from that country.

Under the deal, Shanghai-based Greenland Group will be 70% owners of a joint venture that will develop Atlantic Yards, a 22-acre residential and commercial real estate project in downtown Brooklyn.

The overall project, located at a commuter rail hub, includes the Barclays Center, a basketball and hockey arena that opened last year. It is home to the NBA's Brooklyn Nets and will be home to the NHL's New York Islanders starting in 2015. But plans to add residential and office towers at the site have lagged behind the arena's development.

The joint venture will not include either the Barclays Center or the first residential tower that is planned for the site. The joint venture plans to build an additional 6,400 apartments, of which 2,250 will be set aside as affordable housing Forest City Ratner Companies, which built Barclays Center and is planning the first tower, will be the Greenland's partner in the project. The deal still needs regulatory approvals.

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This is the second, and largest, U.S. commercial real estate deal for the Chinese firm. In July, it purchased a 275,450-square-foot site in downtown Los Angeles where it plans to build a hotel and apartments.

China: Solve debt ceiling ASAP   China: Solve debt ceiling ASAP

In a statement, Greenland Group says it is one of the largest real estate developers in China, with projects in more than 70 cities in 25 provinces in China, with revenues of $36.6 billion and a total profit of approximately $2 billion in 2012. Fortune ranks it 359th on its Global 500 list of the world's largest companies, up from a ranking of 483 a year earlier. To top of page