Friday, August 30, 2013

8 Strategies for Women from Warren Buffett, the Feminist Capitalist

Looking out at the faces of people waiting to hear me discuss Warren Buffett's investment strategies recently, I asked myself the same, but always unanswered, question the world's greatest investor would himself ask: Where were the women?

Buffett knows one thing other men tend to overlook — being a feminist is good for the bottom line.

As an expert on Buffett's business strategies, I travel the world speaking at major investment conferences. Buffett speaks at none, except for one. When senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, one of his most trusted advisors since 1966, invites him to speak at Fortune's Most Powerful Women Summit, Buffett says yes. Throughout the year, he also welcomes universities to send graduate students to question and learn from him, as long as one requirement is met: 30% or more must be female.

Raised with two beloved sisters by a strong-willed mother, and father to a brilliant daughter himself, Buffett's feminism isn't just emotional, it's pragmatic. He knows women own more than 10 million businesses with nearly $2 trillion in sales each year. Those are numbers he pays attention to, and invests in.

But Buffett is also highly aware that "winning the ovarian lottery," as he calls it, gave him opportunities for success his sisters could not have. As he says, the ovarian lottery is one thing you have no control over. It determines your sex, your race, your place and era of birth. Your IQ and eye color. Your temperament, your sense of humor and health risks. It also includes parental support or lack thereof, along with the income and occupations of your parents. Warren's father happened to be a stockbroker. Discussions about money and investments were a daily part of his life.

Being a numbers man, Buffett assigns probability to everything. He determined the probability of being born a white male in the U. S. in 1930, the year of his birth, was 2%. He had a 50% chance of being born female with the same IQ and talent, which wo! uld have made career options as limited as his sisters', when women were allowed to only be schoolteachers, nurses or secretaries.

Today, career options are virtually unlimited, and Buffett actively encourages women to increase their presence in the still-male dominated arenas of corporate leadership and investment. Feminism is not a new role for Buffett. He did, in fact, become a teacher — in his 20s, one of the first courses he taught at what is now the University of Nebraska Omaha was titled "Women and Investing."

So, if the "ovarian lottery" provided you a set of ovaries, here are eight strategies you can learn from Buffett to maximize your future.

1) Invest in your own expertise. Find a niche and focus on it. Buffett would agree with a statistic from Malcolm Gladwell's book, "Outliers," that it takes 10,000 hours of practice to become an expert. Doris Christopher was 34 years old when she invested $3,000 to start Pampered Chef in her basement in 1980. Over the next 20 years she invested thousands of hours developing a distribution network through home party sales before selling the company to Buffett for a cool three-quarters of a billion dollars. Over those two decades, she'd invested far more than 10,000 hours. Bill Gates, a close friend and board member of Buffett's, had the good fortune to be in eighth grade at a school that acquired an extremely rare item at the time — a computer. It became his obsession. Seven years later, he quit Harvard in his sophomore year to start his own company. By then, he'd invested far more than 10,000 hours. Buffett himself started at an even earlier age, making his first investment while in fifth grade. He made his first million by the age of 30, after investing more than 10,000 hours building his skill.

2) Invest in other women's success. Buffett puts his money where his mouth is, investing in successful companies that were begun or are headed by women.

Godiva Chocolates are known to probably every! woman in! America.. But Buffett didn't invest in Godiva, he invested in Mary See's candy. See's Candies use the very same ingredients as Godiva, except without preservatives, and sell for $17 a pound, a third of Godiva's price. Buffett bought the company in 1972 for $25 million. Today, See's Candies earns four times that, about $100 million a year, just between Thanksgiving and Christmas alone. See's seasonal kiosks in high-end shopping malls during the holiday season are often set up near a Helzberg Diamond Store, another Buffett-owned company that's led by a woman, CEO Beryl Raff.

3) Surround yourself with smart women and trust their advice. Since the death of his first wife, Susan, whom he always credited for making him a success, the most influential woman in Buffett's personal life is his daughter, Susie. Number two is Debbie Bosanek, his secretary since 1993. No one gets past Ms. Bosanek without her approval, and anyone who treats her poorly will never get his approval. Number three is his wife, Astrid, who was a close friend for nearly 30 years before their marriage in 2006. These are the three most influential women of the many he relies on. Carol Loomis, his long-time friend, editor and occasional bridge partner, is another. When they team up at cards, he says Loomis is "the strongest part of my game."

Buffett trusts women just as much for their business acumen. Berkshire Hathaway's board has 10 outside members, typical for a Fortune 500 company. What's not typical is that three of the 10 are women: Charlotte Guyman, a retired manager at Microsoft; Susan Decker, former president of Yahoo; and the most recent nominee, Meryl Witmer, principal of Eagle Capital Partners. Most Fortune 500 corporations only have one female member.

4) Plan your advancement strategy. It's a given you need to do deep research on any company you want to join. Look for companies where women excel. Seek out bosses who support women on their paths to success. I recently asked an atto! rney what ! her career advice would be to a young woman entering the legal profession. She said, "Choose a firm that has partners who have daughters." There's a saying that the fastest way to make a man a feminist is to give him a daughter. It's true. I want everything for my daughter that I would want for a son.

And don't assume that working for a woman will automatically be more advantageous. Sadly, some feel threatened by other women and will undermine them. Whether you'll be working for a male or female boss, find out the answer to two questions before making a career decision: What is the overall turnover rate, and what is the turnover rate of women, under that person's direction?

5) Pick the right role models and heroes. Study what they do that makes them successful. You should be able to distill their motivation down to a simple credo. For example, Russian immigrant Rose Blumkin started Nebraska Furniture Mart with one goal, to "Sell Cheap and Tell the Truth." Buffett bought the company in 1988 for $60 million. Each of the company's two current stores sell more than a million dollars of home furnishings and electronics every day. Susan Jacques is CEO of Borsheims, also owned by Buffett and the largest single-location jewelry store in the U.S. Her mission statement is "to provide exemplary customer service and the Midwest attitude" — "Midwest attitude" being another way of saying "tell the truth." Cathy Baron Tamraz at Business Wire, a wholly owned Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) company and global leader in press release distribution, joined the company in 1979 and is now CEO. Part of the corporate mission statement reads, "We develop and maintain relationships ... based upon mutual respect and integrity."

"Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours," Buffett has said, "and you'll drift in that direction."

6) Selling your integrity for short-term gain guarantees a long-term loss. Martha Stewart's name will be forever! connecte! d to two things: building a multi-million dollar business empire, and serving prison time for insider trading. She may have avoided losing $45,000 in the transaction, but she lost far more: she was forced to resign her position on the board of the New York Stock Exchange, sentenced to federal prison, fined $30,000, and paid penalties of nearly $200,000. Leona Helmsley, another multi-million-dollar business mogul, was convicted of tax evasion, assisting in the filing of false corporate and partnership tax returns, and mail fraud. Sandra Jackson, wife of former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., recently pled guilty to knowingly understating joint income on their tax returns. Buffett sums up it up succinctly: "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."

7) Study Buffett to invest wisely in your own portfolio. Men and women alike often ask me to recommend works by Buffett that will help them become better investors. My answer is always the same: Read his annual letters to shareholders. The third edition of a compilation of those letters, "The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America," edited by Lawrence Cunningham comes out in March 2013. Buffett's annual letters dating back to 1977 are available at www.BerkshireHathaway.com, a no-nonsense but wise and entertaining website where Buffett quotes everyone from Mae West to Groucho Marx to Woody Allen. "You don't need to be a rocket scientist," he says. "Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ ... Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

8) Focus on the future. Buffett is firmly bullish on women in the economy. Last December during a BBC interview, Buffett recalled his sisters. "I saw two human beings with enormous potential and it was just assumed that they could be a nurse, they could be a secretary, they could be a flight attendant ... What a waste of human talent." He added, �! �Fifty pe! rcent of the talent in the country, we've pushed off in the corner for almost 200 years. Now we're getting to the point where we are using 100%. It makes me optimistic but we still have a way to go." Known as the Oracle of Omaha for his accurate predictions, Buffett firmly predicts that women will save the U.S. economy, and asserts that women's opportunities are key to his optimism. While panes have been broken in the glass ceiling, it hasn't come down completely. One day it will. Of the Fortune 500 companies, only 4% are headed by women. But remember this: 28 years ago there were zero.

Whether you want to head a Fortune 500 company, build your own business or grow your portfolio, remember: A woman of genius is admired. A woman of wealth is envied. A woman of power is feared. But only a woman of character can be trusted.


Robert P. Miles teaches the "Genius of Warren Buffett Seminar," April 29–May 1, at the University of Nebraska Omaha (http://cba.unomaha.edu/execmgmt/buffettgenius), and is director of the 10th Annual Value Investor Conference, May 2–3 (http://www.valueinvestorconference.com/). For more information, visit http://www.robertpmiles.com/

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Thursday, August 29, 2013

ADTRAN Beats 2Q Earnings and Rev. - Analyst Blog

Communication network solution provider ADTRAN Inc. (ADTN) reported strong second-quarter 2013 financial results, owing to strong contributions from its Internetworking and Broadband Access product divisions. The results were positively impacted by an improved spending atmosphere and increased strategic investment by its carrier customers. ADTRAN currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

In the second quarter of 2013, GAAP net income was $9.9 million or 17 cents per share compared with $21.1 million or 33 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. However, quarterly adjusted earnings per share were 18 cents, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 15 cents per share. The company reported quarterly total revenue of $162.2 million, down 11.8% year over year but outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $153 million.

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Quarterly gross margin was 49.2% compared with 51.7% in the prior-year quarter. Operating income registered a steep drop of 47.6% year over year to $14.1 million. Quarterly operating margin was 8.7% compared with 14.6% in the prior-year quarter. The company's board of directors declared a cash dividend of 9 cents per share for the quarter. The dividend will be paid on Aug 8 to shareholders of record as of Jul 25.

During the first half of 2013, ADTRAN generated $29.4 million of cash from operations compared with $37 million in the year-ago period. Free cash flow, in the reported period, was $25.8 million compared with $29.2 million in the prior-year period. At the end of the second quarter of 2013, cash and marketable securities were $190.1 million compared with $228.9 million at the end of 2012. Total debt, at the end of the reported quarter, was $46 million, remaining same to the end of 2012.

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Other stocks in this industry that warrant a look includes Calix Inc! . (CALX), Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI) and Equinix Inc. (EQIX). While Calix currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), both Crown Castle and Equinix have a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Monday, August 26, 2013

Is Disney a Buy?

With shares of Disney (NYSE:DIS) trading around $64, is DIS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Disney is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive. Disney offers entertainment that sends smiles to consumers across a range of countries around the world. It's movies and shows, theme parks, and products have remained a main attraction for many years and will continue well into the future.

Disney chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Robert Iger, will remain head of the company for longer than some had previously expected, as his contract has been changed to leave him at the helm of the company for another three years. A president or a chief operating officer has never been named so his successor is still unknown. As Disney continues to provide excellent entertainment, look for the company to remain a leader in the industry.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Disney stock has been on an explosive surge higher over the last several years. The stock has pulled-back from all-time highs so it may need time before it continues a move higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Disney is trading between its rising key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

DIS

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Disney options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Disney Options

25.35%

76%

73%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

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Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Disney’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Disney look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

36.21%

-3.75%

17.34%

31.17%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

9.89%

5.21%

3.42%

3.87%

Earnings Reaction

-0.12%

0.42%

-5.95%

1.36%

Disney has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over most of the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been optimistic about Disney’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Disney stock done relative to its peers, Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), Dreamworks (NASDAQ:DWA), News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWSA), and sector?

Disney

Time Warner

Dreamworks

News Corp.

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

28.62%

24.27%

56.13%

-32.25%

22.67%

Disney has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Disney provides entertainment through multiple channels to a growing worldwide audience. The current CEO, Robert Iger, has extended his contract for another three years. The stock has been on an explosive move higher, in recent years, but is now digesting gains from this run so it may need more time before its next leg higher. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have been optimistic as earnings and revenue figures have been rising. Relative to its peers and sector, Disney has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Disney to OUTPERFORM.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Most Asian Stocks Fall After U.S. Jobs Data Spurs

Asian stocks fell as investors shied away from riskier assets after an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will cut stimulus next month. Chinese shares reversed the biggest intraday surge since March 2009.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. sank 3 percent after Australia's third-largest bank by market value forecast interest margins will keep dropping. Hyundai Merchant Marine Co. soared 6.9 percent in Seoul after North Korea and South Korea agreed to reopen the jointly operated Gaeseong industrial complex. Chinese stock exchange officials are investigating a spike in the Shanghai Composite Index, which soared as much as 5.6 percent in two minutes.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5 percent to 134.23 as of 2:20 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge retreating. More than two shares dropped for each that rose. The measure is on course for a 0.2 percent gain this week.

"We expect the slowdown in U.S. bond purchases to happen sooner rather than later," John Milroy, a strategist at Macquarie Private Wealth, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. "It's the key question for markets at the moment. There was a point where it had to stop and you do get some reason to see profit taking."

The Asia-Pacific gauge gained 4.2 percent this year through yesterday, lagging a 16 percent surge on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as growth slows in China, the world's second-largest economy, and speculation the Fed will curb U.S. bond buying spurred international investors to sell assets perceived riskier across Asia and emerging markets.

Shanghai Rally

China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.1 percent. The Shanghai's stock exchange is looking into an earlier rally, when the gauge jumped from a loss to a gain of 5.6 percent in two minutes, according to a technical services official at the bourse, who asked not to be named, citing the exchange's rules.

The surge may have resulted from a trader error, according to Gerry Alfonso, a trader at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities.

Trading in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. was more than 300 percent above the 20-day average, while China Merchants Bank Co. was 210 percent higher.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 percent, with volume 78 percent above its 30-day average for the time of day.

A report today is forecast to show Hong Kong's economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Wellington Earthquake

New Zealand's NZX 50 Index declined 0.4 percent. The market was closed for about an hour due to an earthquake near Wellington. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.8 percent. South Korea's Kospi index slid 0.2 percent. Singapore's Straits Times Index slipped 0.7 percent and Taiwan's Taiex Index added 0.5 percent.

Japan's Topix index fell 0.8 percent and the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreated 0.7 percent. Volumes were about 25 percent below the 30-day average.

The Topix index surged 33 percent this year, retaining its position as the world's best-performing developed equity market, amid optimism Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will push through reforms while the central bank provides record stimulus to spur an economic recovery.

Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in almost six years, data yesterday showed, adding to concern that had 65 percent of economists in a Bloomberg survey Aug. 9-13 predicting a reduction in Fed bond purchases in September.

U.S. Futures

Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent. The gauge fell 1.4 percent yesterday, the most since June, as a sales forecast from Cisco Systems Inc. and a profit outlook from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. disappointed investors while the improving economic data pushed bond yields higher.

About 50 percent of MSCI Asia Pacific Index members that have reported earnings this season posted profits that beat analyst estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge traded yesterday at 13.1 times estimated earnings compared with 15.1 for the S&P 500 and 13.9 times for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

ANZ sank 3 percent to A$29.45. Group net interest margin excluding the bank's global markets business, a key measure of lending profitability, dropped 3 basis points as at June 30 from three-months earlier and the lender expects it to decline by "several more basis points" by the end of the financial year.

J. Front Retailing Co. sank 2.7 percent to 724 yen in Tokyo after reporting a decline in department-store sales.

Hyundai Merchant soared 6.9 percent to 24,650 won in Seoul. North Korea yesterday reached an agreement with South Korea to reopen the jointly operated Gaeseong industrial complex that was closed in April as ties deteriorated over the North's nuclear program.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Workplace Retirement Plan Vital to Employee Savings

For employees, the impact of a workplace retirement plan is undeniable. More than 70% of respondents in a study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch said their employer-sponsored retirement plan will be their largest or second-largest source of income. However, just 34% said their employer does a good job of helping workers transition into retirement.

That lack of transition help could also be contributing to more workers postponing their retirement, the study found. More than three-quarters of respondents said they will work into their late 60s and 70s, up from 72% last year.

But, of course, many workers will work longer simply because they don’t have enough saved to retire. Just 38% of respondents said non-workplace accounts will provide their largest or second-largest source of income, so it’s troubling that one-quarter of workers within five years of retirement said they expect to have less than $250,000 saved by the time they retire. The large majority of workers overall think they aren’t saving enough, and 60% don’t think they’ll ever have enough to maintain their standard of living in retirement.

“Corporate benefit leaders, the retirement services industry and legislators must continue to work together to improve and protect the effectiveness and health of our country’s retirement system,” Kevin Crain, head of Institutional Retirement and Benefit Services for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a statement. “We see many employers actively working to empower employees to take greater control of their financial success, as well as enhancing their financial benefits to ensure they are results-based, easy to use and encourage healthy behaviors.”

Nearly 60% of workers said they need the most financial help with retirement planning issues. When asked what financial planning resources they’d like their employers to provide, more than half wanted access to a financial planner who could work with them one on one. Online tools were the second most popular resource. Nearly 40% of workers said they were interested in seminars that address their life stage and personal financial situation.

Unfortunately, health care may be taking money out of workers’ retirement pockets. Eighty percent of respondents said their health care costs have gone up in the last two years; of those, 56% say they’re saving less for retirement.

The survey found HSAs are becoming increasingly more common, if not necessarily more popular. While 76% of employees said their company offers a plan, just 38% of them said they participate in it. Participation is largest among workers closer to retirement (50%), but over a third of younger workers participate as well.

The good news is younger workers may have gotten the message that they need to start saving early. The report found the majority of younger workers may be comfortable with a default deferral rate of 5%. Over half are already contributing at least that much, and just 8% contribute less than 3%.

Among pre-retirees, 56% are contributing at least 10% of their salary and almost 30% contribute 15% or more.

Most employers offer a match, and 78% of respondents said they contributed at least enough to meet it. However, few participants are contributing the maximum amount allowed. Just 20% of all respondents said they contributed the maximum allowed last year. Among pre-retirees, just 37% contributed the maximum.

The report found respondents are clearly interested in guaranteed retirement income, and are even willing to give up some of their current income for guarantees in retirement. Nearly 80% of respondents said they’d give up 5% of their current income for a guarantee that they could live comfortably in retirement, and 38% would give up 10% or more. Over half of pre-retirees said they would give up 10% or more of their current income for such a guarantee.

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When asked what they would do with an extra $1,000, over a third of respondents said they would pay down debt and about a quarter would put it toward retirement. Fifteen percent would use it to meet day-to-day obligations, and just 8% would use it on something special. The under-30 crowd was especially likely to say they would use a bonus to pay down debt, while pre-retirees were more likely to save it for retirement.

The report surveyed more than 1,000 employees at companies of various sizes in March. All employees were enrolled in a 401(k) plan.  

Friday, August 23, 2013

5 Stocks Rising on Big Volume

 DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Fiesta Restaurant Group

Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI) owns, operates and franchises fast-casual restaurants under the Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana brand names. This stock closed up 10.5% to $34.73 in Friday's trading session.

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Friday's Volume: 552,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 220,525

Volume % Change: 140%

From a technical perspective, FRGI ripped sharply higher here right off some near-term support at $30.89 and back above its 50-day moving average of $34.23 with strong upside volume. This move pushed shares of FRGI into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $33.14. Shares of FRGI are now starting to move within range of triggering another key breakout trade. That trade will hit if FRGI manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $35.73 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FRGI as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $34.23 or above $33 and then once it sustains a move or close above $35.75 with volume that hits near or above 220,525 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then FRGI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its all-time high at $38.84. Any high-volume move above that level will then give FRGI a chance to trend north of $40.

Huntington Ingalls Industries

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is engaged in building, overhauling and repairing ships, mainly for the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Coast Guard. This stock closed up 1% at $64.11 in Friday's trading session.

Friday's Volume: 297,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 211,441

Volume % Change: 50%

From a technical perspective, HII trended modestly higher here right above some near-term support levels at $62.13 to $61.74 with above-average volume. This move also pushed shares of HII into breakout territory, since the stock took out and closed above its previous 52-week high at $63.99.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in HII as long as it's trending above some key near-term support at $62.13 or above $61.74 and then once it sustains a move or close above Friday's high of $64.14 with volume that hits near or above 211,441 shares. If we get that move soon, then HII will set up to enter new 52-week -igh territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $70 to $72.

Caesars Entertainment

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is a casino-entertainment provider and a diverse U.S. casino-entertainment company. This stock closed up 4.2% at $18.36 in Friday's trading session.

Friday's Volume: 1.55 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 636,136

Volume % Change: 205%

From a technical perspective, CZR jumped higher here and broke out into new all-time high territory above $18.37 with heavy upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $11.90 to its intraday high on Friday of $18.73. During that move, shares of CZR have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CZR as long as it's trending above Friday's low of $17.39 or above more near-term support at $16, and then once it sustains a move or close above its all-time high at $18.73 with volume that's near or above 636,136 shares. If we get that move soon, then CZR will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $22 to $25.

Performant Financial

Performant Financial (PFMT) provides technology-enabled recovery and related analytics services in the U.S. This stock closed up 6.9% at $11.84 in Friday's trading session.

Friday's Volume: 310,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 261,916

Volume % Change: 60%

From a technical perspective, PFMT soared higher here right off both its 200-day moving average of $11.02 and its 50-day moving average at $11.06 with decent upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PFMT within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if PFMT manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $12.47 to $13.26 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PFMT as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $11.02 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 261,916 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then PFMT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its all-time high at $14.09. Any high-volume move above $14.09 will then give PFMT a chance to trend north of $15.

Elizabeth Arden

Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) is a beauty products company with a portfolio of prestige fragrance, skin care and cosmetics brands. This stock closed up 0.30% at $33.66 in Friday's trading session.

Friday's Volume: 736,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 219,258

Volume % Change: 125%

From a technical perspective, RDEN bounced modestly higher here with heavy upside volume. This stock recently gapped down sharply from $40 to its new 52-week low at $30.37 with monster downside volume. That move has now pushed shares of RDEN into extremely oversold territory, since its current relative strength index reading is 16.20. Oversold can always get move oversold, but it's also an area where a stock can experience a powerful bounce higher from.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RDEN as long as it's trending above Friday's low of $33.08 or above $32 and then once it sustains a move or close above its gap down day high of $34 with volume that's near or above 219,258 shares. If we get that move soon, then RDEN will set up to re-fill its previous gap down zone that started at $40. Some possible upside targets for RDEN if it gets into that gap with volume are $36 to $38.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Alcoa Posts 2Q Loss, Beats on Sales - Analyst Blog

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, posted a loss of $119 million or 11 cents per share in the second quarter of 2013 compared with a loss of $2 million or break-even per share in the year-ago quarter. The loss includes $195 million related to restructuring due to plant closures and legal expense.

Excluding one-time special items, Alcoa earned $76 million or 7 cents a share in the quarter, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, it was ahead of the year-ago earnings of $61 million or 6 cents per share. Productivity gains and strong performance from Alcoa's Engineered Products business supported the results.

Revenues dropped roughly 2% to $5,849 million from $5,963 million in the year-ago quarter but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,744 million. The decline in revenues was due to weak aluminum prices, offset by strong demand in the aerospace and automotive end markets. Alcoa continues to see pricing pressure with London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price falling 8% sequentially in the reported quarter.

Alcoa reiterated its global aluminum demand growth expectation of 7% for 2013. Its shares, which are down roughly 9% so far this year, rose to trade above $8 per share after the market closed yesterday, partly reflecting the top line beat.

Segment Review

Alumina - Shipments in the reported quarter were 2.33 million metric tons on production of 4.16 million metric tons. After Tax Operating Income (ATOI) was $64 million, up from $23 million in the year-ago quarter and $58 million in the sequentially preceding quarter. The second quarter results were driven by higher Alumina Price Index-based pricing, a favorable impact from foreign exchange rates, and strong productivity savings, partly offset by lower LME prices.

Primary Metals - Shipments in the second quarter were 0.69 million metric tons versus 0.75 million metric tons a year ago. Production in the quarter was 0.90 million ! metric tons, a decrease of 4.7% from the year-ago quarter. After Tax Operating Loss was $32 million compared with a loss of $3 million in the year-ago quarter and an income of $39 million in the prior quarter. The sequential decline was driven by lower LME prices and higher costs, including the previously announced maintenance costs related to power plant outages in Australia and the U.S.

Global Rolled Products - Shipments in the quarter were 0.50 million metric tons, up 3.7% year over year. Third-party revenues were $1.88 billion, down 1.9% year over year. The segment posted ATOI of $79 million, up 1.3% year over year but down 2.5% sequentially. The sequential decline was due to lower metal prices, largely offset by strong demand from the aerospace, automotive, and packaging businesses.

Engineered Products and Solutions - Shipments in the quarter were 0.058 million metric tons, down 1.7% year over year The segment posted record ATOI of $193 million, up 22.9% year over year and 11.6% sequentially. The increase was due to higher productivity and volumes across all market segments.

Financial Position

Alcoa ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.20 billion compared with $1.71 billion a year ago. Alcoa had a debt-to-capital ratio of 34.5% in the reported quarter versus 36.1% a year ago.

Alcoa Reducing Smelting Capacity

Alcoa announced its plans to curtail 460,000 metric tons of smelting due to low metal prices and maintain cost competitiveness. The company also intends to permanently close its Fusina smelter in Italy, representing 44,000 metric tons of smelting capacity. These two closures will reduce the company's global smelting capacity to roughly 4.1 million metric tons with 13%, or 523,000 metric tons, of smelting capacity idled.

Alcoa remains on track to move down the cost curve and curtailed capacities in its upstream business. The curtailments will improve the competitiveness of! the comp! any's Primary Products business.

Alcoa also announced that it will expand mills in Tennessee and Iowa that cater to the auto and aerospace industries. Alcoa completed the expansion of aluminum-lithium capacity at its Kitts Green facility in the UK and also expanded capacity by 30% at the Alcoa Technical Center outside Pittsburgh. Alcoa expects its aluminum-lithium revenues to quadruple over the next six years to nearly $200 million.

Outlook

Alcoa remains optimistic for 2013 and expects global demand for aluminum to increase 7%. The company envisions 9%-10% global growth in the aerospace sector this year. Alcoa's growth forecast for other markets are – automotive (1%-4%), commercial transportation (3%-8%), packaging (1%-2%), building and construction (4%-5%), and industrial gas turbine (3%-5%).

Our Take

Alcoa, a prominent player in the mining industry along with Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (ACH), Atlatsa Resources Corporation (ATL) and BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), is a world leader in production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina. The company is also the world's largest miner of bauxite and refiner of alumina.

Alcoa is divesting underperforming assets through its restructuring program and is aggressively pursuing cost-cutting actions. Healthy demand in the aerospace market is expected to drive results going forward.

However, weakness remains in the commercial building and construction market. In addition, the company continues to contend with pricing pressure.

Alcoa currently retains a short-term Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Market Wrap For Wednesday, July 31: Stocks Mostly ...

The U.S. stock market closed mixed on Wednesday despite upbeat economic data and a dovish FOMC statement.

The advanced GDP estimate for the second-quarter came in much better than expected and the central bank showed no signs that a pullback in its quantitative easing program is imminent. Nevertheless, stocks were mostly unchanged at the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a small loss, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq finished the day with a small gain.

Major Averages

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21 points, or 0.13 percent, to 15,500.

The S&P 500 lost less than a point, or 0.01 percent, to 1,686.

The Nasdaq rose around 10 points, or 0.27 percent, to 3,626.

GDP-Advanced

According to the advance estimate, GDP rose 1.7 percent in the second-quarter. This compares to a downwardly revised reading of 1.1 percent in the first-quarter of 2013. The consensus only expected GDP to advance 1.1 percent in the most recent quarter.

FOMC Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged after a two-day FOMC meeting. The July FOMC statement also showed that the central bank is not pulling back from its $85 billion per month quantitative easing program. The Fed may begin tapering the program later this year, however, if the economic recovery picks up steam.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago PMI index improved in July, rising from 51.6 in June to 52.3. The index showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago region has now expanded for three months in a row after contracting in April. The consensus expected Chicago PMI to decline slightly to 51.5.

Commodities

Crude oil traded higher during Wednesday's session. At last check, NYMEX crude futures had added a little better than 2 percent to $105.24. Brent crude contracts climbed 0.79 percent to $107.75. Natural gas was last up 0.47 percent to $3.45.

In afternoon trade, precious metals were trading higher. COMEX gold futures w! ere last up 0.34 percent to $1,329.30 while silver added 1.50 percent to $19.98. Copper futures jumped around 2.60 percent on the session to $3.1210.

The grains complex was mostly higher on Wednesday. Late in the day, corn futures had climbed 0.31 percent while wheat was up 1.37 percent. Movers in soft commodities included coffee and lumber. Coffee contracts were last down 1.41 percent while lumber had lost 2.41 percent.

Related: Fed bond buying on track.

Bonds

Treasuries were slightly higher near the close after rising throughout the day. At last check, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) was up 0.34 percent to $107.68.

Yields were as follows on Wednesday afternoon. The yield on the 2-Year Note was 0.31 percent while the 5-Year Note was yielding 1.38 percent. The 10-Year Note and 30-Year Bond were yielding 2.57 percent and 3.65 percent, respectively.

Currencies

Heading into the close of equities, the U.S. Dollar was slightly lower on the day. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP), which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of foreign currencies, was down 0.20 percent to $22.10.

The closely watched EUR/USD pair was last up 0.56 percent to $1.3338. Other movers on the day included the USD/CAD, which fell 0.60 percent, and the AUD/USD, which was down 0.58 percent.

Related: Is Herbalife still a buy?

Volatility and Volume

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly on the session. Late in the day, the widely watched barometer of market volatility was up a little better than 1 percent to 13.54.

Volume remained lighter than normal, but above recent days on Wednesday. Around 109 million SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) shares traded hands compared to a 3-month daily average of 135 million.

Stock Movers

Shares of Questcor Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: QCOR) jumped around 27 percent on the day after the company released better-than-expected fiscal ! second-qu! arter financial results.

Marketo (NASDAQ: MKTO) delivered strong Q2 results and forward looking guidance, sending the stock up around 20 percent in late trade.

Synchronoss Technologies (NASDAQ: SNCR) added almost 15 percent on the day after the company's fiscal Q2 results.

Sodastream International (NASDAQ: SODA) delivered Q2 financial results which beat Wall Street profit and sales estimates. Late in the day, the stock was trading up almost 12 percent.

Strong fiscal first-quarter results from InvenSense (NYSE: INVN) sent shares higher by around 13 percent near the closing bell.

NuVasive (NASDAQ: NUVA) reported a second-quarter loss and adjusted earnings missed Wall Street consensus estimates. In late trade, the stock was down around 13 percent.

Shares of Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ: RVBD) lost around 11 percent on Wednesday after the company swung to a second-quarter loss.

Regal-Beloit (NYSE: RBC) lost around 8 percent on Wednesday after reporting fiscal second-quarter results that failed to meet analysts' estimates. The company said that its North American commercial and industrial businesses remained sluggish in the quarter.

Visa (NYSE: V) traded down around 7 percent on Wednesday after an unfavorable court ruling which could limit the capping of so-called "swipe fees" on debit cards.

Today's top financial tweets!

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(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Ball's 'Green' Spacecraft Fuel - Analyst Blog

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Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp., a unit of Ball Corporation (BLL), together with Aerojet Rocketdyne has brought forward an environmental-friendly spacecraft fuel for NASA's Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM).

Ball has successfully demonstrated the end-to-end checkout of the 22 Newton thruster required for GPIM. The role of 22 Newton thrusters is significant to GPIM as it will fire along with four smaller 1N thrusters to initiate orbit inclination changes and altitude changes. It is also vital for GPIM's eventual de-orbit upon mission completion.

An industry and government team is working under Ball's guidance to bring up a high-performance, non-toxic fuel alternative to the conventional hydrazine. The mission propellant, a Hydroxyl Ammonium Nitrate (HAN) fuel/oxidizer blend, or AF-M315E, provides around 50% improved performance than hydrazine.

GPIM is a Technology Demonstration Mission under the leadership of NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate. The green propulsion system will fly aboard a Ball Configurable Platform (BCP) 100 spacecraft bus. This is the first time that U.S will use a spacecraft to test green propellant technology.

Ball Corporation., which belongs to the containers and packaging industry along with Crown Holdings Inc. (CCK), Greif, Inc. (GEF) and Mobile Mini, Inc. (MINI), also supplies aerospace and other technologies and services to government and commercial customers through its Aerospace and Technologies segment.

The segment contributed 12% of Ball Corporation's revenues in the first quarter of 2013. It develops and manufactures spacecraft, advanced instruments and sensors, components, data exploitation systems and RF solutions for strategic, tactical and scientific applications. In the first quarter, Aerospace and Technologies segment sales increased 15% to $231 million. The se! gment had a backlog of more than $1 billion at the end of the quarter.

This is a milestone in Space Technologies as green fuel will reduce environmental impact and operational hazards, improve launch processing capabilities, increase payload capacity, enhance spacecraft maneuverability and also enable longer duration missions. This will lead to the adaptation of green spacecraft propulsion technology into a wide range of government and commercial missions. Given its improved performance, green propellant will be the preferred choice for future space missions and provide a competitive edge to Ball's Aerospace and Technologies.

Ball Corporation currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).


Time to change the way you take financial decisions

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The long- term impact of every financial decision is significant. The benefits of a well informed and well researched financial decision continue for many years, whereas, a bad financial decision hurts both short and long term financial prospects.

The impact of individual financial decisions on collective financial life of an individual and his/her family is often ignored. This can be mainly attributed to the source of our financial advice.


So where do we get our financial advice from?

• Friends and Colleagues act as financial advisors for 35.40 percent of the professionals.

• Family members are the prime source of financial advisory for 30.97 percent of the professionals.

• 13.27 percent of the professionals make financial decisions based on their self research. 

• Friendly neighborhood agents advise 15.93 percent of the professionals.

• Only 4.42 percent of the professionals seek advice from an expert financial advisor before making a financial decision.
 
Source:  Personal Finance Habits of Salaried Professionals in India

We rely on expert advice in every walk of life be it buying a car or consulting a doctor. However, when it comes to planning our finances, we often make decisions without consulting a financial advisor. Lack of access to quality advice is the prime reason behind individuals making some financially bad decisions.

The indirect factor that affects the financial decision making process of the professionals is the current market structure. The transactional nature of the market plays its part in supporting the myth among professionals that financial advice is costly and money management is only required for the wealthy. This is the governing factor behind the professionals banking on the advice from their family, friends and colleagues.

However, majority of this group of advisors themselves lack the financial knowledge. A group of these advisors also have a vested interest of selling products and gaining commissions through such transactions. We have to change the way in which we take care of our personal finance.

Personal finance decisions cannot be outsourced. One cannot expect to get tailor-made solutions. We have to get involved and get help from the qualified professionals to help us in managing our finances better.

So how do we address this concern of providing quality financial advice to vastly diversified salaried professionals?  New innovations which can leapfrog the existing system and provide the professionals the much needed quality advice is the need of the hour.

Offering personal finance solutions through online technology can prove beneficial for the professionals. It gives them convenience to plan their finances at their convenient time. The online personal finance management techniques provide access to quality financial advice which is also cost effective.

Authored by ArthaYantra.com , an integrated online personal finance company.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

How to Know What Rate of Return to Expect from your Stocks: Part 1

Introduction: There are two critical attributes that the prudent investor should consider before investing in a company (stock). These same two attributes can also be used to calculate a reasonable expectation of the future return the stock is capable of generating on their behalf. These two attributes are valuation and the rate of change of earnings growth. Valuation indicates whether or not the company's current earnings power compensates you for the risk you take, while the company's future rate of change of earnings growth will be the driver of future returns.

We believe these are very important concepts for prudent investors to understand for several reasons. First, you can make an investment at fair value into a low or slow growth company and still not generate a high rate of return. On the other hand, the risk associated with achieving it is normally low. This is simply because achieving a low rate of earnings growth is easier to do. Conversely, you could overpay, perhaps even significantly so, for a very powerful or fast grower and still make a high rate of return, because of the power of compounding.

However, by overpaying you are taking on more risk than you should for two reasons. First of all, the probability of a company achieving a very high rate of growth is very low, and second, longer term it's virtually a given that price will return to fair value. Therefore, the investor will not be able to harvest the full measure of the company's growth achievement. More simply stated, the probability of a future PE contraction is high. The effect is a lower rate of return than deserved, while illogically taking a higher level of risk than necessary to obtain the lower return.

To summarize, if a company grows fast enough, then future earnings growth can overcome a high beginning valuation. However, the risk taken to achieve it is amplified by the high valuation. Conversely, if you come across an opportunity to buy a stock at a very low valuation, even a low growth compan! y, your return potential is greatly enhanced while, simultaneously, your risk is greatly lessened.

On the other hand, overpaying for a slow grower (for example, a typical utility stock) destroys your return potential while simultaneously turning what might normally be a low-risk investment into a high-risk investment. In the same vein, if you can find a slow grower that is significantly undervalued, you could generate a high return and arguably achieve it at very low risk.

Valuation Demystified

As stated in our introduction, valuation is one of what we believe to be the two most important attributes that investors should consider before investing in a stock. Yet, fair valuation alone does not automatically indicate a high future return or even an adequate one. In truth, valuation is a relative concept that becomes relevant to future return only when looked at in conjunction with future growth. Throughout this report, we will illustrate that valuation unto itself is most relevant in the context of current time. In other words, valuation itself applies predominantly to current fundamentals. Consequently, we see valuation more as a measurement of soundness than we do as a rate of return expectation.

As a result, both a moderately fast-growing stock and a very slow-growing stock can command the same valuation in current time. However, given fair valuation for both, the faster grower offers a higher future return. This concept can apply to all classes of stocks to include non-dividend paying stocks as well as dividend paying stocks (Later in this article I will more clearly reveal this principle with specific examples). The point I am stressing is that valuation is more related to soundness than it is to future returns. Even more simply stated, valuation is about prudent behavior and risk mitigation.

To illustrate this more clearly, we are going to utilize the most common valuation measurement, the PE ratio. But first and foremost, we want to emphatically state that the PE! ratio is! more than a mere statistical inference. Instead, our objective is to illuminate the idea that the PE ratio is a relevant measurement of valuation that represents the appropriate compensation for the amount of risk currently being assumed. The key to understanding this is to recognize the PE ratio as a measurement of the earnings yield the investment is offering.

To put this into perspective, consider that the long-term average PE ratio of the S&P 500 has been, depending on the time frame being measured, somewhere between 14 to 16 times earnings (S&P 500 average PE 14 - 16). Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania has written that stocks have returned an average of 6.5% to 7% per year, after inflation, over the last 200 years. For simplicity's sake, we are going to hang our hats on the historical average S&P 500 PE ratio of 15.

Now, up to this point, the average PE ratio of 15 for the S&P 500 is simply a statistic. Though a statistic is information, information alone is not wisdom. Answering the important question of why a PE ratio of 15 is common over such a long period of time is more critical than simply knowing the number itself.

In order to discover why, let's analyze what PE ratios of 14 to 16 translate into in terms of rate of return calculations. What we discover is that a PE ratio of 15 represents a reasonable and attractive rate of return of approximately 6% to 7%, which has historically been achieved (the long-term stock market average), and therefore logically is considered acceptable and achievable.

To add clarity to this point, let's actually calculate the rate of return (earnings yield) that a PE of 14, 15 or 16 represents. To determine the earnings yield, simply reverse the PE ratio (price divided by earnings) and calculate the EP ratio (earnings divided by price). Therefore, we learn that a PE ratio of 14 equals an earnings yield of 7.1%, a PE ratio of 15 equals an earnings yield of 6.66% and finally a! PE ratio! of 16 equals an earnings yield of 6.25%. Therefore, we learn through wisdom, that it is no coincidence that these calculations coincide almost perfectly with Prof. Jeremy Siegel's historical statistic of average stock market returns of 6.5% to 7%.

In other words, an average stock market PE of approximately 15 (14 to 16) is rational and makes economic sense because it represents an appropriate yield on investment, which is why it is so commonly applied to the valuation of most stocks. For this to be relevant enough to be considered wisdom, however, it also needs to apply practically in real-world circumstances. To do this, we must be able to see and measure evidence that clearly shows that the average fair value PE ratio of 15 actually does manifest in reality.

Testing the Fair Value 15 PE Ratio Hypothesis

In order to test the fair value PE ratio of 15, we will utilize the earnings and price correlated Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool - F.A.S.T. Graphs™. This powerful "tool to think with" utilizes widely accepted formulas for valuing a business. Utilizing these formulas, appropriate valuations in the form of PE ratios are calculated.

Interestingly, these formulas tend to calculate the fair value PE ratio to be approximately 15 for companies whose earnings growth has historically averaged 3% to 15% per annum. Companies whose growth is below 3% will calculate out at PE ratios slightly less than 15. For very fast-growing companies (above 15%), a different formula that calculates higher PE ratios applies, and will be presented later. This supports the 200-year 6.5% to 7% yield that Prof. Siegel reported (remember, a PE of 15 equals an earnings yield of 6.66%).

Once the fair value PE ratio is calculated, monthly closing stock prices are overlaid onto the graphs in order to discover if there is a strong price and earnings correlation. If the formulas are valid, then we should see a very close association between earnings and stock price relative to a PE ratio of 1! 5 over ti! me.

The following four earnings- and price-correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ illustrate how the market has historically valued companies that possess varying growth rates that range within the 3% to 15% growth category at a PE of 15. The reader should note that each of these samples show that the calculated PE (the orange line) and the normal PE historically applied by the market (dark blue line) are virtually the same, or at least close.

SCANA Corp (SCG): A Low Growth Regulated Utility

Our first example plots SCANA Corp. whose earnings growth rate has averaged only 3.3% per annum. Here, we would like to remind the reader that our position is that fair valuation is a function of the earnings yield that "current earnings" represent. Consequently, purchasing a company at fair valuation implies that the investor is making a sound financial decision. However, as previously stated, this does not necessarily guarantee a high future rate of return. As we will illustrate in Part 2, that will be determined by the company's future earnings growth rate.

The orange line on the following graph represents our fair value PE ratio of 15 applied to SCANA Corp.'s historical earnings since calendar year 1998. To be clear, every point on the orange line equals a PE ratio of 15. The Graham Dodd Formula was used to calculate the fair value PE ratio of 15 and is expressed to the right of the graph in orange letters — GDF X 15. According to our thesis, if this truly is a fair value PE ratio, when the stock price overlay is applied, then price should track the orange line very closely over time.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Our next graph overlays monthly closing stock prices with our orange earningsjustified valuation line. Moreover, two additional important valuation metrics are also added. The light blue shaded area expresses dividends paid out of earnings (the green shaded area). The dark blue l! ine repre! sents our algorithm calculating the normal PE ratio that the market has historically applied to this business over this time period.

Clearly, we see that the black price line tracks the orange earnings-justified valuation line (PE = 15) almost perfectly. The normal PE ratio (14.4) is also almost a perfect match indicating that historically the market has appraised this company at approximately 15 times earnings. Furthermore, during the short-term time periods when price temporarily deviates from earnings, we see that it soon returns. Therefore, we discover in this example that fair valuation exists any time the stock is trading at a PE ratio of 15 or below. (Note: Once again, the rate of return that this produces is a different matter that will be elaborated on in part 2.)

[ Enlarge Image ]

OGE Energy Corp. (OGE): Another Utility with Slightly Higher Growth

Our second example, OGE Energy Corp., differs from our first only by virtue of the fact that its earnings growth rate since 1998 has averaged over 5% per annum. Nevertheless, we once again discover that the PE ratio of 15 represents a strong proxy for this company's valuation. During the short time intervals when price deviates from fair value PE of 15, it doesn't take long for price to move back into alignment with earnings.

Furthermore, during this time frame there have been almost no incidences of overvaluation with either of our first two examples. In both cases, however, we see that when the PE ratio falls substantially below our PE 15 standard, the opportunity for higher rewards at significantly lower risk clearly manifests.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Wolverine World Wide (WWW): A Faster Growing Global Marketer of Footwear

Our third example, Wolverine World Wide, moves farther up the growth chain with earnings a! veraging ! 9.4% per annum. Nevertheless, we once again see the strong relationship and close correlation between stock price and earnings over the long run. Perhaps due to the faster earnings growth rate, we do see several periods where the company's price earnings ratio has deviated significantly above the 15 standard, indicating overvaluation. Nevertheless, just as we saw with our first two examples, stock price inevitably and soon moves back into alignment with earnings.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR): Develops, Manufactures and Distributes Prestige Perfumes

Our final example, Inter Parfums Inc., is an above-average growing small-cap that validates our PE 15 standard, but with a twist. Small-cap. companies tend to carry greater risk than larger capitalization companies. As a result, it is not uncommon to see, as we do with Inter Parfums Inc., an earnings and price correlated graphic with wilder price swings.

On the other hand, we believe the following graphic clearly validates the thesis of fair valuation. The PE 15 principle continues to apply over the long run. More directly stated, price does track earnings, albeit with violently volatile price swings in between. But most importantly, in spite of all the price gyrations, stock price continues to quickly and inevitably revert to the fair value PE ratio mean of 15.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Summary and Conclusions

In this Part 1 of this two-part series, the majority of our focus has been on the principle of fair valuation, or as we like to call it — True Worth™. Our contention is that by understanding and accepting the idea that fair valuation is primarily a metric of soundness, it simultaneously lays the foundation for determining future returns from a common stock investment. As we will expand upon in Part 2, howev! er, valua! tion is a relative measurement. When viewed in isolation, it does not provide an accurate future return calculator.

In order to calculate future returns within a reasonable degree of accuracy, we must consider valuation as it relates to earnings growth. In this Part 1, we have provided evidence that fair valuation calculates out to be very similar for companies generating earnings growth of 3% to 15% per year. Our thesis is that fair valuation is, first and foremost, a function of a stock's current earnings yield. This is why companies with different earnings growth rates will command similar, if not identical, current valuations. As we will develop in Part 2, however, thanks to the power of compounding, when growth becomes very fast (above 15%) a higher valuation becomes justified.

But perhaps most importantly, in Part 2 we intend to demonstrate how investors in common stocks can utilize the principle of valuation in conjunction with the company's expected future earnings growth rate to determine reasonable future rate of return expectations. We believe these are critical components for investors to master. Because, when valuation is understood and looked at in conjunction with future earnings growth, risk assessments also become more clear and accurate. Consequently, not only can investors have a better idea of what rate of return they can expect, but they can also ascertain how much risk they are taking to generate it. As a result, smarter, sounder and more profitable buy, sell and hold decisions can be made.

Disclosure: Long SCG at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no cir! cumstance! s should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.

Freelancer Or Employer: Identifying Your Next Career Move

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While the current economic recovery in the United States may be a little less robust than was first envisioned, it has at least been sustained during the first two financial quarters of 2013. This sluggish period of growth is a consequence of the Great Recession, as consumer confidence continues to fluctuate wildly and the U.S. employment market experiences its weakest recovery since World War II.

While the global economic recession may have triggered long-term stagnation, it has also impacted heavily on behavioral trends in the U.S. This is most noticeable in the changing nature of business start-ups and the entrepreneurs who operate in the U.S. A growing number of individuals have been forced to work independently out of necessity rather than a deep-rooted desire or long-term aspiration.

The Rise of the Freelancer: Does it Represent a Good Career Move for You?
This trend is reflected in the rising number of freelancers in the U.S., which reached an estimated 42 million during 2012. Including temporary workers and self-employed individuals, this demographic now accounts for approximately 33% of the U.S. employment market and is set to grow even further over the next decade. As recently as 2010, technology giant Intuit predicted that freelancers would make up 40% of the total workforce by the year 2020, and while this may have a positive impact on lowering the national unemployment rate, it raises other issues concerning long-term job security, pension plans and the average citizen's ability to save.

With these points in mind, you will need to give careful thought to your next career move as you consider the alternative benefits of freelancing and traditional employment. Keep the following factors in mind as you appraise each individual option:

Industry Growth and its Compatibility with Remote Working
The industry in which you work has a key influence in determining your preferred method of working, especially if you are to maximize your earning potential and achieve career advancement. A survey conducted by freelance giant Elance in September 2012 revealed that businesses across numerous industries are posting a record number of fractional and project-oriented jobs, with 42% of employers also confirming that they anticipate hiring more independent workers in 2013 than the previous year. While this reflects the widespread and diverse growth that defines the market, it is important to remember that the remote nature of freelancing remains more compatible with some sectors and job types than others.

Further evaluation of this report suggests that creative and technical jobs are the fastest growing in the freelance market, as the vast majority of work can be assigned and completed online. Individuals with IT, multimedia and software programming skills can therefore expect to find well-paid and continuous work while freelancing, while 2012 also saw a significant rise in the demand for mobile application developers and accountants. While the market is constantly evolving to include new sectors and job types, it is important to evaluate your own specific niche and skill set prior to forging a career as a freelancer.

Time Vs. Money and Your Earning Potential as a Freelancer
When it comes to evaluating the viability of freelancing, it is important to calculate your earning potential and the number of hours that you will need to work in order to achieve your financial goals. This conundrum of time versus money is crucial to determining the precise value that you place on your marketable skills, and whether or not making the transition from traditional employment would be worthwhile. To begin with, it is worth noting that the typical U.S. citizen worked a total of 1,776 hours during 2011, which means that the average working week consisted of just over 34 hours.

In contrast, U.S. freelancers worked an average of 39 hours each week during 2011, which represents a considerable difference over the course of a single year. Despite this trend being prominent across several continents, a global study of freelancers revealed that 48.7% earned less that they had anticipated despite their increased output. An even greater concern is the issue that freelancers have had with regards to acquiring payment for completed work, with 40% of the global talent pool claiming that they struggled to claim the wages that they were owed. It is important to keep this in mind, as you must consider which method of working affords you the best financial rewards for your effort.

Your Personal Circumstances and Long-Term Goals
Although freelancing continues to gain in popularity, it is important to remember that there are disadvantages associated with this method of working. The most prominent disadvantage is a lack of benefits, as freelancers cannot access employment contract staples such as statutory sick pay and healthcare coverage. When you consider that the primary motivation to work remains financial remuneration and the compensation that is offered in exchange for your services, the lack of a detailed contract means that freelancers are often at a significant disadvantage within the existing employment market.

Freelancers must also cope without a long-term pension plan, which can seriously impinge upon their ability to save and secure financial independence. Given that U.S. workers are already held in the grip of a pension crisis and facing the prospect of exhausting their funds just 14 years into retirement, those who operate as freelancers appear to be facing an even more uncertain future. While there are personal and retirement account options that can help you to save towards your future as an independent contractor, you must also factor in the lack of employer contributions and your specific retirement goals before establishing yourself as a freelancer.

The Bottom Line
By giving careful consideration to these factors and your long-term goals as an individual, it is possible to gain an insight into the reality of freelancing and whether it is viable for your specific circumstances. Although the increasing accessibility of independent contracting has undoubtedly created vital opportunities within a struggling job market, it is important to remember that this method of working also has considerable disadvantages in comparison with traditional employment. If you are considering going it alone as a freelancer, you must make a balanced decision and ensure that you are not swayed by popular opinion or sheer volume of freelancing growth statistics.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Is Amazon Stock a Buy?

With shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) trading around $312, is AMZN an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Amazon serves its customers through its retail websites and focus on selection, price, and convenience. The company also manufactures and sells Kindle devices. Amazon offers programs that enables sellers to sell their products on the company's websites, including the sellers’ own branded websites, and fulfill orders through them. It also offers platforms that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Online commerce has been on the rise because of the convenience, efficiency, and relatively low prices offered.

Amazon may be able to sell e-books for its popular Kindle e-readers for even less, now that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has lost a trial accusing the tech giant of colluding with publishers to raise the price of e-books. Also, Amazon is a leader in the Internet commerce space, so look for them to continue to see rising profits, as more consumers and companies opt for this method of shopping and selling. However, Amazon's second quarter earnings missed analyst expectations, as the e-commerce giant has been doing some big spending lately.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Amazon stock has been on a surging higher over the last few years. The stock is now trading near all-time highs, where it may spend some time. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages.

What are the key moving averages? They are the 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Amazon is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

AMZN

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Amazon options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Amazon Options

26.78%

3%

1%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Flat

Average

September Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers, and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts, and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates, and what that means for Amazon’s stock.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. In addition, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions can help gauge investor sentiment on Amazon’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Amazon look like, and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-150.00%

-35.71%

-43.66%

-528.57%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

22.36%

21.88%

22.01%

26.94%

Earnings Reaction

2.86%*

-7.24%

4.76%

6.87%

Amazon has seen decreasing earnings and increasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, it seems the markets have been pleased with Amazon’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Amazon stock done relative to its peers, eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS), and sector?

Amazon

eBay

Apple

Barnes & Noble

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

22.59%

1.63%

-17.40%

20.08%

8.43%

Amazon has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Amazon is an Internet commerce giant serving the needs of consumers, companies, and entrepreneurs worldwide. A recent earnings report has left investors feeling optimistic about the company. The stock has been steadily rising over the last several years, and is now trading near all-time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been decreasing, while revenues have been rising, which has led to pleased investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Amazon has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Amazon to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

The Changing Wealth Demographic (And How To Leverage It)

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Across the globe, a new wave of affluent wealth is appearing.

This "new wave" is younger, more socially conscious, and much more in tune with technology than their Baby Boomer parents. How can advisors connect with them? By showing them you are socially conscious and more in tune with Twitter, Facebook and mobile apps.

And that's just for starters.

That's right, change is coming to the financial market, and its newly emerging face is that of a young investor looking to leverage his or her financial futures, as his or her Baby Boomer parents begin to transition into their golden years.

That transition affects financial advisors, too.

For example, younger investors – think the Generation X demographic (born in the 1960s and 1970s) and the Generation Y demographic (born in the 1980s and early 1990s) are set to overtake the Boomers in overall financial assets in the next decade.

That's good to know, on one level, but flip the script and there is a scary trend developing for advisors. Just because you do business with the Baby Boomers doesn't mean you'll earn the business of those Gen X and Y sons and daughters coming into their financial prime.

In fact, the odds are highly likely that you won't earn their business.

Studies show that 98% of new wealth inheritors change financial advisors. The good news? Family specialists who take a "glass half full" outlook can benefit from that trend, as the field is wide open for advisors looking to add some of that newbie wealth to their client lists.

Just how much wealth are we talking about? About $28 trillion in total wealth by 2018, says a new study from Deloitte Wealth Management entitled "A New Breed: Opportunities for Wealth Managers to Connect With Gen-X and Gen-Y."
How can you best position your business to attract a healthy slice of that $28 trillion? Take these steps and you'll be first in line when young investors start looking for professional financial services help.

Emphasize Social Consciousness
What do young Baby Boomers look for when seeking professional investment advice? Two words – trust and values. But not their kids. Younger investors place a much higher priority on transparency and community. Think "social responsibility" and you'll really start to see that new face of tomorrow's financial consumer.

Check Your Google Fingerprints
Gen X and Gen Y were raised in the information age, where data is as much a commodity as widgets and washing machines. That's why, when they get a referral with your name on it, job one for young financial consumers is to check you out on Google. Be prepared for that by conducting an "online facelift," and assess your practice's profile, image and message online to see if it matches the social responsibility theme that means so much to the younger generation. If it does not, scrub away what doesn't promote transparency and trust, and create a new image that promotes those themes.

"As financial advisors provide services to the younger generation, they need to include more interactive online capabilities," says Jill Jacques, wealth management and retirement lead/principal for North Highland, a global consulting company.

Go Where the Business Goes
Gen X and Gen Y clients love hanging out on social media sites such as Facebook, Linked In and Twitter. If you don't establish a presence on such sites, you'll come off as detached and aloof from the technology trends that young investors value. The good news (besides the edge in positioning over your competition) is that establishing social media credibility is fast, cheap and highly effective.

Jacques says one of the biggest differences between generations is that those in Generations X and Y are more likely to do research before and after their meeting. "Often, they will come prepared with thoughtful questions about research they have done online themselves. And they'll often research their potential advisor through social media. Financial advisors should maintain a presence on LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter as long as they remain compliant."

Hire a young "contact" – Jeff Seavey, a client advisor at SunTrust, advises building stronger connections with younger investors by having younger staffers close by to interact with them. "The best way for financial advisors to connect with younger clients is to devote resources to serving them better," he says. "Having a member of the advisor team who is close in age and exclusively devoted to serving them is the best approach."

The Bottom Line
For a burgeoning financial practice, learning all you can about Gen X and Gen Y isn't a luxury – it's a necessity.

In that regard, promoting a new image and message that matches up with what the new face of financial consumers want and expect is a process where failure just isn't an option.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

PetSmart Growing Strong

With 45 million cat owners and 56 million dog owners in the U.S., pet food and needs is big business forecast to account for over $55 billion of spending in 2013 by American Pet Products Association.

PetSmart Inc. (PETM) is the largest specialty retailer for the needs of pets. The company employs approximately 52,000 associates and operates more than 1,289 pet stores in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico, over 196 in-store dog and cat boarding facilities, and is a leading online provider of pet supplies and pet care information.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Revenues and earnings have grown strongly over the past four years as pet numbers have increased and as pet owners have increased spend. Key to this is a positive instore experience and better product range than general retailers and online suppliers. PetSmart achieves this by being constantly on the prowl for innovative new products and ensuring all its stores are stocked with more than 10,000 products, all available at everyday low prices. Including thousands of products exclusive to PetSmart.

Differentiating itself from general retailers, owners can go shopping with their pets to gauge their interest in products or avail of the many services that are available. Millions of dogs are groomed and bathed each year in PetSmart salons. PetSmart also operates over 195 in-store PetsHotels dog and cat boarding facilities and Doggie Day Camps. Expert veterinarian care is within arm's reach in more than 60 percent of stores, where Banfield Pet Hospital, operates full-service pet hospitals.

[ Enlarge Image ]

*Consensus earnings forecasts from Yahoo Finance

Consensus earnings forecasts point to continuing EPS growth of 15.2% per annum for the next five years. For fiscal year 2013, the company anticipate comparable store sales growth of 3% to 4%, and raised EPS guidance from a! previous range of $3.76 to $3.92, to current expectations of $3.82 to $3.94. The stock has increased 11% over the past 12 months and on 20 times historic earnings is not cheap. But investors who believe Americans will continue to want to buy treats for their pets may consider PetSmart to be the leading retailer capable of delivering the full product range.

If you enjoyed this article then please visit www.surgingearnings.com.

Risk Disclaimer: This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Investing in stocks or other securities and derivatives is a high risk activity and not suitable for everyone. It is strongly recommended that individuals should consult with a SEC registered investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

Disclosure: The author holds no positions in the above mentioned stocks

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Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Derma Sciences Increases Sales but Misses Estimates on Earnings

Derma Sciences (Nasdaq: DSCI  ) reported earnings on May 15. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Derma Sciences met expectations on revenues and missed expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased significantly. GAAP loss per share expanded.

Gross margins grew, operating margins contracted, net margins shrank.

Revenue details
Derma Sciences tallied revenue of $18.8 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted revenue of $19.0 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 23% higher than the prior-year quarter's $15.3 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at -$0.38. The three earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast -$0.37 per share. GAAP EPS were -$0.38 for Q1 versus -$0.24 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 35.7%, 380 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -32.7%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -33.2%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $20.1 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.41.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $82.8 million. The average EPS estimate is -$1.59.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a one-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 10 members out of 21 rating the stock outperform, and 11 members rating it underperform. Among seven CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), give Derma Sciences a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Derma Sciences is buy, with an average price target of $16.88.

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Sunday, August 4, 2013

This Metric Suggests You're Right to Own Digi International.

Here at The Motley Fool, I've long cautioned investors to keep a close eye on inventory levels. It's a part of my standard diligence when searching for the market's best stocks. I think a quarterly checkup can help you spot potential problems. For many companies, products that sit on the shelves too long can become big trouble. Stale inventory may be sold for lower prices, hurting profitability. In extreme cases, it may be written off completely and sent to the shredder.

Basic guidelines
In this series, I examine inventory using a simple rule of thumb: Inventory increases ought to roughly parallel revenue increases. If inventory bloats more quickly than sales grow, this might be a sign that expected sales haven't materialized. Is the current inventory situation at Digi International (Nasdaq: DGII  ) out of line? To figure that out, start by comparing the company's inventory growth to sales growth. How is Digi International doing by this quick checkup? At first glance, not so great. Trailing-12-month revenue decreased 5.8%, and inventory increased 3.2%. Comparing the latest quarter to the prior-year quarter, the story looks decent. Revenue shrank 1.7%, and inventory grew 3.2%. Over the sequential quarterly period, the trend looks healthy. Revenue grew 2.6%, and inventory grew 1.7%.

Advanced inventory
I don't stop my checkup there, because the type of inventory can matter even more than the overall quantity. There's even one type of inventory bulge we sometimes like to see. You can check for it by examining the quarterly filings to evaluate the different kinds of inventory: raw materials, work-in-progress inventory, and finished goods. (Some companies report the first two types as a single category.)

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A company ramping up for increased demand may increase raw materials and work-in-progress inventory at a faster rate when it expects robust future growth. As such, we might consider oversized growth in those categories to offer a clue to a brighter future, and a clue that most other investors will miss. We call it "positive inventory divergence."

On the other hand, if we see a big increase in finished goods, that often means product isn't moving as well as expected, and it's time to hunker down with the filings and conference calls to find out why.

What's going on with the inventory at Digi International? I chart the details below for both quarterly and 12-month periods.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Let's dig into the inventory specifics. On a trailing-12-month basis, work-in-progress inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 14.3%. On a sequential-quarter basis, work-in-progress inventory was also the fastest-growing segment, up 156.0%. Although Digi International shows inventory growth that outpaces revenue growth, the company may also display positive inventory divergence, suggesting that management sees increased demand on the horizon.

Foolish bottom line
When you're doing your research, remember that aggregate numbers such as inventory balances often mask situations that are more complex than they appear. Even the detailed numbers don't give us the final word. When in doubt, listen to the conference call, or contact investor relations. What at first looks like a problem may actually signal a stock that will provide great returns. And what might look hunky-dory at first glance could actually be warning you to cut your losses before the rest of the Street wises up.

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